The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment. However, each month a few days before we receive the highly anticipated jobs report, ADP releases their data on new nonfarm private jobs.
The ADP employment report revealed that 109,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in April, the largest monthly growth since January 2025. However, the latest figure was lower than the expected 118,000 addition.
Here is a visualization of the two series over the past twelve months. There is no correlation between the ADP and BLS employment report.
Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:
"Small and large employers are hiring, but we're seeing softness in the middle. Large companies have resources to deploy, and small ones are the most nimble, both important advantages in a complex labor environment."
Here is a snapshot of the monthly change in the ADP headline number since the company's earliest published data with the new methodology in 2010. This is quite a volatile series, so we've plotted the monthly data points as dots along with a six-month moving average, which gives us a clearer sense of the trend. The six-month moving average currently sits at 60,000, the highest level since early 2025.
As we see in the chart above, the trend peaked in September 2015 and then went negative for the first time in late 2019, just before the NBER declared a recession start. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought employment numbers down to levels we have never seen this century. The trend reached a new high in 2021 at 728,000 but has dropped below pre-pandemic levels over the last few years.
ADP Employment: Industry
The ADP report divides Total Nonfarm Private Employment into two categories: Goods-Producing and Service-Providing. Given that the US is primarily a services economy, it's no surprise that Services employment has historically driven job growth. This reliance also explains why the sector was hit hardest when the pandemic brought many service-producing jobs to a halt.
In April, goods-producing jobs rose by 15,000 while service-providing jobs increased by 94,000. The sector with the largest growth last month was Education and Health Services with a gain of 61,000 while the biggest loser last month was Professional and Business Services with a loss of 8,000 jobs.
The next chart is a linear representation of each industry's contribution to overall employment from the start of the series.
ADP Employment: Region
ADP also gives us a breakdown of Total Nonfarm Private Employment into nine regions (census divisions). All regions experienced job growth last month with the Pacific region experiencing the largest gain, adding 28,000 private jobs.
The next chart is a linear representation of each region's contribution to overall employment from the start of the series.
ADP Employment: Establishment Size
ADP also gives us a breakdown of Total Nonfarm Private Employment into five sizes. Establishments with 1-19 employees added the most jobs last month, with a gain of 43,000. Meanwhile midsize establishments of 250-499 employees experienced the only loss, dropping by 3,000.
The next chart is a linear representation of each establishment size's contribution to overall employment from the start of the series.
Here's our list of monthly employment updates:
Employment Situation Report
Unemployment Claims
Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims, and the Business Cycle
Ratio of Part-Time and Full-Time Employment
Multiple Jobholders
Read more updates by Jen Nash
As we see in the chart above, the trend peaked in September 2015 and then went negative for the first time in late 2019, just before the NBER declared a recession start. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought employment numbers down to levels we have never seen this century. The trend reached a new high in 2021 at 728,000 but has dropped below pre-pandemic levels over the last few years.
