Fixed income investors continue to grapple with an uncertain macro environment, dominated by higher-for-longer interest rates and a new-look U.S. Federal Reserve, in which rate hikes may be forthcoming. Rather than make a directional bet on interest rates to combat duration risk, consider floating-rate ETFs, a compelling option.
Every year in early July, we update our interactive Periodic Table of Commodities Returns to reflect the performance of raw materials in the first six months of the year. Maybe I’m biased, but I believe it’s one of the clearest snapshots of the commodities landscape you’ll find anywhere.
While tariff uncertainty hasn’t completely disappeared, it has diminished, and firms are feeling less uncertain about the future.
The first wave of upgrades came after the AI hyperscalers reported, by and large, strong earnings. But most of the improvement has stemmed from the rest of the non-financials index, with analysts quadrupling their one-year aggregate EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) growth expectations, from 5% at the end of January to more than 20% as of 30 June.
As we move toward the mid-term elections, many are making the argument that “democracy is at risk.” We get politicians making this argument, but when supposedly sober political and economic analysts start to make it, we do get worried.
The Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates in the second half of 2026 appear very much up in the air. That said, advisors and fixed income investors may want to renew their focus on short duration bonds and related ETFs.
The signals suggest the regime may be changing, and we should be prepared for that possibility. However, until that becomes more evident, we must take advantage of what the market has to offer.
In his zeal to avoid signaling where interest rates are headed, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has obscured something else that’s crucial to investors, analysts and other policymakers: How he would react when challenged by the economy.
South Korea’s AI-fueled stock rally came under renewed pressure Monday as SK Hynix Inc. tumbled by a record 15%, underscoring growing investor concerns that the boom has become overstretched.
Dividend growth investing is inherently long-term in nature. The philosophy emphasizes companies capable of growing earnings, cash flow, and dividends over time, with the goal of generating a growing income stream alongside capital appreciation potential.
What makes this earnings setup truly unique is the behavior of Wall Street analysts over the last 90 days. Because corporate guidance tends to be conservative, analysts historically cut estimates ahead of time.
The AI capex risk profile has gotten sharper since then, and the argument needs tightening in a few places. The bull case and the tail risk are now the same buildout, but they are running in different directions.
This week a number of articles caught my attention. The only thing that ties them together is their impact on the US and global economy. Economic anomalies: things we were not looking for but show up and force us to pay attention. Today in the summer heat, let’s take a look at a few of them.
For investors using direct-indexed equity strategies, tax-loss harvesting becomes a major focus, as it may help improve after-tax returns—but we think the calendar for tax-loss selling can make a big difference. Weekly tax-loss harvesting, in our view, offers the potential for more efficient tax-loss harvesting and more effective index tracking in turbulent markets.
Markets enter the second half of 2026 facing a familiar wall of worry—geopolitical conflict, oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and questions around the durability of an AI-led equity rally. Yet the economic backdrop still looks resilient: growth remains solid, inflation has moderated, unemployment is reasonable, and market leadership appears to be broadening.
Fixed income experts James Donahue, John Lloyd and Mike Talaga revisit the levels of supply related to the AI buildout and explain why they remain cautious towards investment grade tech issuance.
Discover the top 10 most-read charts from the first half of 2026, covering historic market valuations, record margin debt, recession indicators, and global index performance.
Russell Investments is getting new owners. An investor consortium led by B Capital, a global multi-stage investment firm, has agreed to acquire the asset manager from TA Associates and Reverence Capital Partners. The group also includes the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), according to a Thursday press release.
If there's one thing you should take away from it, it's this: these six measures rarely move together. When they have, twice in 250 years, the country entered a period of real upheaval. Right now, they're moving together again.
For investors who have been tracking this space, the signing is a continuation of a policy architecture that has been assembling with surprising speed.
The sharp correction in gold prices during the first half of 2026 has left many investors wondering whether the precious metal's bull market has come to an end. According to Money Metals' Mike Maharrey, however, the market's recent weakness is largely a matter of perspective.
The yield on the 10-year note finished July 10, 2026 at 4.56% while the 2-year note ended at 4.21%.
Unpack the latest ICI flow data as long-term mutual funds bleed billions directly into low-cost, model-ready ETFs.
Money flowing into President Donald Trump’s newly created accounts for children will initially be invested in a State Street Corp. exchange-traded fund, as the US Treasury Department prepares to roll out the program.
The US equity market, with the S&P 500 hovering near all-time highs, is expensive. This isn’t controversial. Depending on which measure you use, US stocks have arguably been overpriced for several years.
New Hampshire’s executive council voted down a proposal to bring the first Bitcoin-backed bond to the municipal market.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama pulled a genuine surprise on Friday when she announced toward the end of a regularly scheduled press conference that the government would pursue policies to encourage its massive pension funds to invest more at home. Details were sparse, and the yen wasn’t mentioned directly.
The Great Moderation has given way to a more volatile era, where inflation shocks and market dispersion favor flexibility and diversification.
The action in Emerging Markets ETFs this year has been really interesting to watch. From record-breaking asset flows to impressive results, albeit massively dispersed, this category of funds has had quite a ride so far in 2026. What comes next could be equally interesting.
Central bankers expect de-dollarization to continue over the next several years, with gold and other currencies taking on a growing role in the global monetary system, according to a survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF).
One of the bigger questions facing advisors and investors right now revolves around credit. Inflation, volatility, and Fed rate hikes all loom, potentially heightening credit risk for portfolios. Navigating that risk may be a crucial task in the second half of this year.
Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor reviews a strong second quarter for emerging markets, where AI and reindustrialization were key drivers of investor returns.
Investors are often drawn to healthcare for its innovation and long-term growth potential. Yet in practice, allocations are often concentrated in a few large pharmaceutical companies, whether through direct stock picking or index weightings.
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in June.
June's employment report showed that 17.6% of total employed workers were part time and 82.4% of total employed workers were full-time.
Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% in June as the median home price surged to a record high of $440,600.
In the week ending July 4th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 218,000.
Almost two decades ago, when trillions of dollars in private housing debt proved unsustainable, governments had to step in to prevent the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression from eclipsing it.
The busiest airport in New England is tapping the municipal bond market to remodel its facilities and keep up with passenger growth.
It used to be a considered something of a tawdry question, although it could be flattering as well: “What’s your number?” Nowadays, your inquisitor is probably asking about retirement — as in, how much you think you need to retire. And, as it often was before, it’s the wrong question.
ClearBridge Investments: Although markets often pause to digest after large gains, history suggests these episodes usually prove fleeting, meaning major indexes could move higher in the second half of 2026.
Markets move on data, earnings, interest rates, and economic conditions. But they can also be heavily influenced by human behavior. Even experienced investors can fall into emotional or psychological patterns that affect decision-making, particularly during periods of uncertainty or market volatility.
As economies become increasingly electrified and power demand grows, the transmission, storage and infrastructure needed to support reliable electricity delivery are evolving. In our view, these trends are creating attractive opportunities across the technologies and infrastructure that underpin the energy transition.
For much of the last decade, investing felt relatively one dimensional. Falling inflation, near zero interest rates and abundant liquidity rewarded long duration growth assets, compressed dispersion and made passive exposure difficult to challenge.
The June jobs report underscored our thesis that while the labor market remains in the 'economic plus column,' some of the prior months' increases in new hiring seemed a bit too high.
Congress is in recess from June 30 through July 13 for the annual July 4 break, so it's relatively quiet in the nation's capital. But there is still plenty worth paying attention to.
On June 30, Defiance debuted the new Defiance KSM TipRanks Analyst ETF (RANK). With an expense ratio of 60 basis points, this fund aims to leverage Wall Street’s highest-rated analyst consensus data to capitalize on U.S. market momentum.
Over the first half of 2026, markets faced some expected — and unexpected — tailwinds and headwinds, ranging from geopolitical developments, blockbuster corporate earnings, increasing artificial intelligence (AI) scrutiny, resilient economic data, and a new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair.
Model portfolios are seeing billions in inflows, and part of that success may be from how these strategies implement ETFs and private assets.
Following the Q1 GDP third estimate, the 'Buffett Indicator'—the ratio of corporate equities to GDP—now stands at 218.1%. This marks the fourth-highest reading in history.
Widowhood does not happen on paper. It happens in the middle of grief, changing income, tax questions, family expectations, housing decisions, administrative demands, and a profound shift in identity. The math may still work, but the human operating system has changed. And that is why advisors need to stress test — not only for portfolio survival, but for survivor usability.
I have spent the better part of my career watching how organizations manage access to sensitive data — who has it, who should have it, and how long it takes anyone to notice when those two things stop matching. In financial services, that gap tends to be measured in months.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
A wave of profit taking in the gold market has brought a three-year bull run to an end, but there’s little evidence yet that investors are putting on large-scale short positions in anticipation of further declines.
In 2003, the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency made a visionary attempt to use prediction markets for geopolitical forecasting. However, it created a huge controversy in Congress and was quickly killed.
Rising prices increase the value of collateral in every margin account, which automatically increases how much each investor can borrow under Reg T. Debt rises BECAUSE the market rose, not the reverse. That single fact is what breaks the ratios we’re about to examine, and it lies at the core of why margin debt risk is so often misjudged.
Royce Investment Partners: In this second quarter recap, Francis Gannon discusses how US small-and micro-cap stocks have continued to lead the US equity market in a robust period for equities.
Fixed income transition costs are increasingly driven by what happens in credit markets. As credit trading becomes more efficient, the cost of transitioning fixed income portfolios is coming down, and how those transitions are executed is changing too.
The shortened trading week brought the second quarter of 2026 to a positive close. Stocks ended slightly lower for month, but closed the quarter on a nice uptick. The US and Iran resumed peace talks, helping stocks push higher.
It feels like gold has tanked this year, but the yellow metal was only down about 7 percent through the first six months of 2026. The sharp price rally to kick off the year exacerbated the scope of the ensuing correction. Gold is down about 28 percent from its record highs.
The first half of 2026 has provided a considerable amount of news for investors to digest. Notably, equity markets were higher by nearly 10%, oil prices spiked over 50% before retreating nearly back to where they started, there is a new Chair of the Federal Reserve in Kevin Warsh, and AI infrastructure spending surged.
Significant interest appears to be accumulating around capacity expansion in the market. The primary mechanism driving this activity may be a structural capital expenditure cycle (CapEx). One where a prevailing market dynamic could transform one company’s CapEx directly into another company’s revenue. .
AI may reshape the labor market in ways that are difficult to predict, and it won’t be the first time this has happened. In the short term, the labor market appears to have stabilized and there are some early signs of acceleration.
Bitcoin tumbled as renewed geopolitical tensions rattled digital asset markets, eclipsing what had been a muted reaction to Strategy Inc.’s latest sale of the token earlier in the week.
After losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in less than two months, Nvidia Corp.’s stock is the cheapest it’s been since before the AI boom kicked off and sent the shares into the stratosphere.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 25.3 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 39.5.
The word fiduciary no longer answers the only question that matters: Whether the advice you are given is shaped by what the advisor earns from giving it. Many advisors will tell you, accurately, that they are fiduciaries, and many will say they have no conflicts without disclosing the ones they hold.
Private equity may be our No. 1 economic boogeyman. It is blamed for rising real estate prices, poor medical care, and ruining many of the businesses we used to love.
ETF Database saw a massive surge in readers this past June. The most popular pieces focused on everything from breaking SpaceX IPO news to the technical mechanics behind top-performing ETFs.
Global equities rebounded in the second quarter as confidence in the AI investment cycle strengthened. As the third quarter begins, we believe markets have become priced for a smooth and profitable AI build-out, leaving little margin for error. June’s sharp sell-off in the Magnificent Seven stocks underscored how quickly sentiment can shift when crowded AI trades are priced for near-flawless execution.
Second-quarter 2026 markets were driven by the Iran conflict, which disrupted oil flows and spiked prices before easing after a partial Strait of Hormuz reopening. Focus then shifted to new Fed Chair Warsh’s reforms and SpaceX’s high-valuation IPO. The U.S. economy remains stable with moderate growth and rising inflation. Markets are up, led by AI-driven semiconductors, though risks and uncertainties persist.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The June employment report’s headline readout was softer than expected, but the details reinforce my view that the U.S. economy remains on a stable footing. Headline payroll growth disappointed, yet the previous two months—which had surprised to the upside—were revised lower, bringing hiring back toward a pace that is far more consistent with a mature expansion.
Higher rates, weaker underwriting, and software concentration are exposing vulnerabilities in direct lending and leveraged loans, while high yield bonds appear better positioned.
Close to 40 years ago, I moved from Canada to the U.S. after acquiring a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors. I’ve built my entire life and career here, and in all that time, I’ve never stopped marveling at my adopted country.
Bypass the headaches of individual closed-end funds. Discover how Invesco's PCEF bundles over 100 CEFs to capture June's debt rallies.
The U.S. Treasury launched the Trump Accounts for childhood wealth building. Discover the five low-cost index ETFs anchoring the program.
What is remarkable about Livermore is that his rules are still incredibly valuable. The markets he traded in no longer exist. The technology, the communication speeds, and the regulatory framework of his day are unrecognizable compared to today. But the principles and behavioral patterns he identified are as operational in 2026 as they were a hundred years ago.
Wage growth peaked four years ago. Since 1985, it has led CPI by three to seventeen months in every single cycle. The May 4.2% inflation print is the noise. Watch the wages.
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global rose 0.5 points to 51.2, indicating a modest rise in service sector activity. The latest reading was just below the forecast of 51.3 and marked the strongest expansion in four months.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 54.0. This was slightly lower than the forecast of 54.2 but keeps the index in expansion territory for a 24th consecutive month.
While the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at the latest meeting, investors increasingly speculate that rate hikes are on the table in 2026.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees the yen weakening to 165 per dollar in a year’s time, driven in part by Japan’s interest rate differentials with the US.
The most interesting shift in market price action in June was the strong outperformance of value stocks compared to the broad market and tech
A growing share of central bankers argue that artificial intelligence will ultimately push neutral interest rates higher. Intuitively, if AI boosts productivity and lifts long-run growth, then households have less incentive to save, pushing up the real neutral rate.
Most global investors are not attuned to what can be seen on the horizon, not far from shore. After the Great Financial Crisis, Europe was slow to address the underlying capital issues. Rather than guillotining the problems, they allowed a slow bleed to take place.
Midway through 2026, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Global Investment Outlook framework remains a valuable lens—but the landscape has shifted.
The war in Iran has delivered an oil shock into a bond market that had not fully shaken inflation pressures. Higher energy prices have revived concerns about the path of inflation just as central banks were edging toward rate cuts, forcing a reassessment of what investors require to hold long-term bonds. That reassessment is now playing out in higher long-term yields and steeper yield curves globally.
Fixed Income
4 Floating-Rate ETFs That Should Top Your List
Fixed income investors continue to grapple with an uncertain macro environment, dominated by higher-for-longer interest rates and a new-look U.S. Federal Reserve, in which rate hikes may be forthcoming. Rather than make a directional bet on interest rates to combat duration risk, consider floating-rate ETFs, a compelling option.
Lithium Was the Top Performing Commodity in H1
Every year in early July, we update our interactive Periodic Table of Commodities Returns to reflect the performance of raw materials in the first six months of the year. Maybe I’m biased, but I believe it’s one of the clearest snapshots of the commodities landscape you’ll find anywhere.
Tariff Pass-Through Is Not Over
While tariff uncertainty hasn’t completely disappeared, it has diminished, and firms are feeling less uncertain about the future.
A Higher Bar for Earnings Season
The first wave of upgrades came after the AI hyperscalers reported, by and large, strong earnings. But most of the improvement has stemmed from the rest of the non-financials index, with analysts quadrupling their one-year aggregate EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) growth expectations, from 5% at the end of January to more than 20% as of 30 June.
Is US Democracy at Risk?
As we move toward the mid-term elections, many are making the argument that “democracy is at risk.” We get politicians making this argument, but when supposedly sober political and economic analysts start to make it, we do get worried.
Keep It Short & Sweet With MINT
The Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates in the second half of 2026 appear very much up in the air. That said, advisors and fixed income investors may want to renew their focus on short duration bonds and related ETFs.
Yield Curves & Style Rotations: Omen or Deception?
The signals suggest the regime may be changing, and we should be prepared for that possibility. However, until that becomes more evident, we must take advantage of what the market has to offer.
Wall Street to Warsh: Skip the Guidance, But Tell Us What You Think About the Economy
In his zeal to avoid signaling where interest rates are headed, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has obscured something else that’s crucial to investors, analysts and other policymakers: How he would react when challenged by the economy.
SK Hynix Shares Plunge Most on Record in Deepening Korea Selloff
South Korea’s AI-fueled stock rally came under renewed pressure Monday as SK Hynix Inc. tumbled by a record 15%, underscoring growing investor concerns that the boom has become overstretched.
The Evolution of Dividend Growth Investing in the ETF Era
Dividend growth investing is inherently long-term in nature. The philosophy emphasizes companies capable of growing earnings, cash flow, and dividends over time, with the goal of generating a growing income stream alongside capital appreciation potential.
Q2 2026 Earnings Preview: Navigating High Expectations, Tariff Rebates, and War Uncertainties
What makes this earnings setup truly unique is the behavior of Wall Street analysts over the last 90 days. Because corporate guidance tends to be conservative, analysts historically cut estimates ahead of time.
AI Capex Risk Cuts Both Ways In The American Economy
The AI capex risk profile has gotten sharper since then, and the argument needs tightening in a few places. The bull case and the tail risk are now the same buildout, but they are running in different directions.
Economic Anomalies
This week a number of articles caught my attention. The only thing that ties them together is their impact on the US and global economy. Economic anomalies: things we were not looking for but show up and force us to pay attention. Today in the summer heat, let’s take a look at a few of them.
Tax-Loss Harvesting: How Often Should It Happen?
For investors using direct-indexed equity strategies, tax-loss harvesting becomes a major focus, as it may help improve after-tax returns—but we think the calendar for tax-loss selling can make a big difference. Weekly tax-loss harvesting, in our view, offers the potential for more efficient tax-loss harvesting and more effective index tracking in turbulent markets.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook: A Soft Landing Meets a Broader Market
Markets enter the second half of 2026 facing a familiar wall of worry—geopolitical conflict, oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and questions around the durability of an AI-led equity rally. Yet the economic backdrop still looks resilient: growth remains solid, inflation has moderated, unemployment is reasonable, and market leadership appears to be broadening.
Is the Credit Market Unprepared for the Level of Tech Supply?
Fixed income experts James Donahue, John Lloyd and Mike Talaga revisit the levels of supply related to the AI buildout and explain why they remain cautious towards investment grade tech issuance.
Top 10 Charts of 2026: Mid-Year Review
Discover the top 10 most-read charts from the first half of 2026, covering historic market valuations, record margin debt, recession indicators, and global index performance.
Russell Investments Gets New Owners as ETFs Gain Steam
Russell Investments is getting new owners. An investor consortium led by B Capital, a global multi-stage investment firm, has agreed to acquire the asset manager from TA Associates and Reverence Capital Partners. The group also includes the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), according to a Thursday press release.
America Turns 250. Yet The Data Isn't Celebrating
If there's one thing you should take away from it, it's this: these six measures rarely move together. When they have, twice in 250 years, the country entered a period of real upheaval. Right now, they're moving together again.
Quantum Computing Goes Mainstream: What 2 Executive Orders Mean for Investors
For investors who have been tracking this space, the signing is a continuation of a policy architecture that has been assembling with surprising speed.
Gold's Pullback Isn't What You Think
The sharp correction in gold prices during the first half of 2026 has left many investors wondering whether the precious metal's bull market has come to an end. According to Money Metals' Mike Maharrey, however, the market's recent weakness is largely a matter of perspective.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: July 10, 2026
The yield on the 10-year note finished July 10, 2026 at 4.56% while the 2-year note ended at 4.21%.
The Great Migration: ICI Data Highlights Shift From Mutual Funds to ETFs
Unpack the latest ICI flow data as long-term mutual funds bleed billions directly into low-cost, model-ready ETFs.
State Street Tapped as Default for Trump Account Investments
Money flowing into President Donald Trump’s newly created accounts for children will initially be invested in a State Street Corp. exchange-traded fund, as the US Treasury Department prepares to roll out the program.
Where to Invest Now as US Stock Markets Get Bubbly
The US equity market, with the S&P 500 hovering near all-time highs, is expensive. This isn’t controversial. Depending on which measure you use, US stocks have arguably been overpriced for several years.
Bitcoin-Backed Muni Bond Fails to Get New Hampshire Sign Off
New Hampshire’s executive council voted down a proposal to bring the first Bitcoin-backed bond to the municipal market.
Japan’s Yen Fix Starts With Its Pension Cash Coming Home
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama pulled a genuine surprise on Friday when she announced toward the end of a regularly scheduled press conference that the government would pursue policies to encourage its massive pension funds to invest more at home. Details were sparse, and the yen wasn’t mentioned directly.
Great Moderation Era: Drift(ing) Away
The Great Moderation has given way to a more volatile era, where inflation shocks and market dispersion favor flexibility and diversification.
AI & “Ex-China” Rewriting the Emerging Markets ETF Playbook
The action in Emerging Markets ETFs this year has been really interesting to watch. From record-breaking asset flows to impressive results, albeit massively dispersed, this category of funds has had quite a ride so far in 2026. What comes next could be equally interesting.
Central Banks Plan to Keep Swapping Dollars for Gold
Central bankers expect de-dollarization to continue over the next several years, with gold and other currencies taking on a growing role in the global monetary system, according to a survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF).
American Century’s Greenblath Talks Credit Risk on Schwab Network
One of the bigger questions facing advisors and investors right now revolves around credit. Inflation, volatility, and Fed rate hikes all loom, potentially heightening credit risk for portfolios. Navigating that risk may be a crucial task in the second half of this year.
2026 Q2 CIO Review and Outlook
Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor reviews a strong second quarter for emerging markets, where AI and reindustrialization were key drivers of investor returns.
Healthcare Investing: Finding Growth Beyond Pharmaceuticals
Investors are often drawn to healthcare for its innovation and long-term growth potential. Yet in practice, allocations are often concentrated in a few large pharmaceutical companies, whether through direct stock picking or index weightings.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: June 2026
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Long-Term Trends for Multiple Jobholders in the US: June 2026
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in June.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: June 2026
June's employment report showed that 17.6% of total employed workers were part time and 82.4% of total employed workers were full-time.
Existing Home Sales Drop in June as Median Prices Hit All-Time High
Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% in June as the median home price surged to a record high of $440,600.
Initial Unemployment Claims Down 2K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending July 4th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 218,000.
Governments Must Fix Their Debt Messes Before It's Too Late
Almost two decades ago, when trillions of dollars in private housing debt proved unsustainable, governments had to step in to prevent the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression from eclipsing it.
Boston Airport Borrows $812 Million for Revamp as Traffic Soars
The busiest airport in New England is tapping the municipal bond market to remodel its facilities and keep up with passenger growth.
Stop Chasing a ‘Magic Number’ for Retirement
It used to be a considered something of a tawdry question, although it could be flattering as well: “What’s your number?” Nowadays, your inquisitor is probably asking about retirement — as in, how much you think you need to retire. And, as it often was before, it’s the wrong question.
The Long View: Not a Straight Line
ClearBridge Investments: Although markets often pause to digest after large gains, history suggests these episodes usually prove fleeting, meaning major indexes could move higher in the second half of 2026.
Common Investor Biases—and How to Avoid Them
Markets move on data, earnings, interest rates, and economic conditions. But they can also be heavily influenced by human behavior. Even experienced investors can fall into emotional or psychological patterns that affect decision-making, particularly during periods of uncertainty or market volatility.
How to Invest Smarter in the Race for Electrification
As economies become increasingly electrified and power demand grows, the transmission, storage and infrastructure needed to support reliable electricity delivery are evolving. In our view, these trends are creating attractive opportunities across the technologies and infrastructure that underpin the energy transition.
The Case for Active Small Caps
For much of the last decade, investing felt relatively one dimensional. Falling inflation, near zero interest rates and abundant liquidity rewarded long duration growth assets, compressed dispersion and made passive exposure difficult to challenge.
Closing the Curtain on Rate Cuts
The June jobs report underscored our thesis that while the labor market remains in the 'economic plus column,' some of the prior months' increases in new hiring seemed a bit too high.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Congress is in recess from June 30 through July 13 for the annual July 4 break, so it's relatively quiet in the nation's capital. But there is still plenty worth paying attention to.
Harnessing Consensus & Momentum: Defiance Debuts RANK ETF
On June 30, Defiance debuted the new Defiance KSM TipRanks Analyst ETF (RANK). With an expense ratio of 60 basis points, this fund aims to leverage Wall Street’s highest-rated analyst consensus data to capitalize on U.S. market momentum.
Midyear Outlook 2026: Key Takeaways for the Second Half
Over the first half of 2026, markets faced some expected — and unexpected — tailwinds and headwinds, ranging from geopolitical developments, blockbuster corporate earnings, increasing artificial intelligence (AI) scrutiny, resilient economic data, and a new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair.
Model Portfolios Gain Momentum in 2026: How ETFs Fit In
Model portfolios are seeing billions in inflows, and part of that success may be from how these strategies implement ETFs and private assets.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: June 2026
Following the Q1 GDP third estimate, the 'Buffett Indicator'—the ratio of corporate equities to GDP—now stands at 218.1%. This marks the fourth-highest reading in history.
The Survivor Stress Test: When the Couple’s Retirement Plan Becomes a Widow’s Plan
Widowhood does not happen on paper. It happens in the middle of grief, changing income, tax questions, family expectations, housing decisions, administrative demands, and a profound shift in identity. The math may still work, but the human operating system has changed. And that is why advisors need to stress test — not only for portfolio survival, but for survivor usability.
Independent Advisors Are Usually the Last to Know About a Breach
I have spent the better part of my career watching how organizations manage access to sensitive data — who has it, who should have it, and how long it takes anyone to notice when those two things stop matching. In financial services, that gap tends to be measured in months.
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Gold’s Bull Market Has Ended and Now All Eyes Are on Bears
A wave of profit taking in the gold market has brought a three-year bull run to an end, but there’s little evidence yet that investors are putting on large-scale short positions in anticipation of further declines.
Prediction Markets Can Work Without Money on the Line
In 2003, the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency made a visionary attempt to use prediction markets for geopolitical forecasting. However, it created a huge controversy in Congress and was quickly killed.
Margin Debt Risk: The Ratios That Mislead Investors
Rising prices increase the value of collateral in every margin account, which automatically increases how much each investor can borrow under Reg T. Debt rises BECAUSE the market rose, not the reverse. That single fact is what breaks the ratios we’re about to examine, and it lies at the core of why margin debt risk is so often misjudged.
US Small-Caps Stay on Top in the Second Quarter
Royce Investment Partners: In this second quarter recap, Francis Gannon discusses how US small-and micro-cap stocks have continued to lead the US equity market in a robust period for equities.
Execution Efficiency Redefines Fixed Income Transitions
Fixed income transition costs are increasingly driven by what happens in credit markets. As credit trading becomes more efficient, the cost of transitioning fixed income portfolios is coming down, and how those transitions are executed is changing too.
2Q26 Strongest Quarter for Stocks Since Pandemic Rebound
The shortened trading week brought the second quarter of 2026 to a positive close. Stocks ended slightly lower for month, but closed the quarter on a nice uptick. The US and Iran resumed peace talks, helping stocks push higher.
Despite Correction Gold Remains One of the Top-Performing Assets in the Last 12 Months
It feels like gold has tanked this year, but the yellow metal was only down about 7 percent through the first six months of 2026. The sharp price rally to kick off the year exacerbated the scope of the ensuing correction. Gold is down about 28 percent from its record highs.
Mid-Year Update
The first half of 2026 has provided a considerable amount of news for investors to digest. Notably, equity markets were higher by nearly 10%, oil prices spiked over 50% before retreating nearly back to where they started, there is a new Chair of the Federal Reserve in Kevin Warsh, and AI infrastructure spending surged.
Observations of An Industrial Revolution
Significant interest appears to be accumulating around capacity expansion in the market. The primary mechanism driving this activity may be a structural capital expenditure cycle (CapEx). One where a prevailing market dynamic could transform one company’s CapEx directly into another company’s revenue. .
Creative Destruction, Momentum, SpaceX
AI may reshape the labor market in ways that are difficult to predict, and it won’t be the first time this has happened. In the short term, the labor market appears to have stabilized and there are some early signs of acceleration.
Bitcoin Weakens as Trump’s Remarks Raise Fresh Iran War Concerns
Bitcoin tumbled as renewed geopolitical tensions rattled digital asset markets, eclipsing what had been a muted reaction to Strategy Inc.’s latest sale of the token earlier in the week.
Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Slide Sends Valuation to Pre-AI Boom Levels
After losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in less than two months, Nvidia Corp.’s stock is the cheapest it’s been since before the AI boom kicked off and sent the shares into the stratosphere.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: June 2026
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: June 2026
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 25.3 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 39.5.
Why Asking The Fiduciary Question Is No Longer Enough
The word fiduciary no longer answers the only question that matters: Whether the advice you are given is shaped by what the advisor earns from giving it. Many advisors will tell you, accurately, that they are fiduciaries, and many will say they have no conflicts without disclosing the ones they hold.
Private Equity for Everyone Is Getting Out of Hand
Private equity may be our No. 1 economic boogeyman. It is blamed for rising real estate prices, poor medical care, and ruining many of the businesses we used to love.
Top ETFDB Stories for June Touch on SpaceX IPO, Current Income, & More
ETF Database saw a massive surge in readers this past June. The most popular pieces focused on everything from breaking SpaceX IPO news to the technical mechanics behind top-performing ETFs.
AI Enthusiasm Leaves Little Margin for Error
Global equities rebounded in the second quarter as confidence in the AI investment cycle strengthened. As the third quarter begins, we believe markets have become priced for a smooth and profitable AI build-out, leaving little margin for error. June’s sharp sell-off in the Magnificent Seven stocks underscored how quickly sentiment can shift when crowded AI trades are priced for near-flawless execution.
Muhlenkamp Quarterly Market Commentary – July 2026
Second-quarter 2026 markets were driven by the Iran conflict, which disrupted oil flows and spiked prices before easing after a partial Strait of Hormuz reopening. Focus then shifted to new Fed Chair Warsh’s reforms and SpaceX’s high-valuation IPO. The U.S. economy remains stable with moderate growth and rising inflation. Markets are up, led by AI-driven semiconductors, though risks and uncertainties persist.
Who’s Right? Two-Year Yields or Two-Year Breakeven Rates?
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Jobs Report Masks a Still-Resilient Economy
The June employment report’s headline readout was softer than expected, but the details reinforce my view that the U.S. economy remains on a stable footing. Headline payroll growth disappointed, yet the previous two months—which had surprised to the upside—were revised lower, bringing hiring back toward a pace that is far more consistent with a mature expansion.
A Growing Divide in Leveraged Finance
Higher rates, weaker underwriting, and software concentration are exposing vulnerabilities in direct lending and leveraged loans, while high yield bonds appear better positioned.
250 Years In, and the Case for America Has Never Been Stronger
Close to 40 years ago, I moved from Canada to the U.S. after acquiring a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors. I’ve built my entire life and career here, and in all that time, I’ve never stopped marveling at my adopted country.
What Drove This Closed-End Fund ETF's Performance In June?
Bypass the headaches of individual closed-end funds. Discover how Invesco's PCEF bundles over 100 CEFs to capture June's debt rallies.
Initial 5-ETF Lineup Released for Newly Launched Trump Accounts
The U.S. Treasury launched the Trump Accounts for childhood wealth building. Discover the five low-cost index ETFs anchoring the program.
More Market Wisdom From Jesse Livermore
What is remarkable about Livermore is that his rules are still incredibly valuable. The markets he traded in no longer exist. The technology, the communication speeds, and the regulatory framework of his day are unrecognizable compared to today. But the principles and behavioral patterns he identified are as operational in 2026 as they were a hundred years ago.
Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator
Wage growth peaked four years ago. Since 1985, it has led CPI by three to seventeen months in every single cycle. The May 4.2% inflation print is the noise. Watch the wages.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Reaches 4-Month High
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global rose 0.5 points to 51.2, indicating a modest rise in service sector activity. The latest reading was just below the forecast of 51.3 and marked the strongest expansion in four months.
ISM Services PMI: Continued Expansion in June
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 54.0. This was slightly lower than the forecast of 54.2 but keeps the index in expansion territory for a 24th consecutive month.
Building Resilient Portfolios: ETF Approaches to Potential Rate Hikes
While the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at the latest meeting, investors increasingly speculate that rate hikes are on the table in 2026.
Goldman Cuts Yen Forecast to 165 Per Dollar, Likes Carry Trades
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees the yen weakening to 165 per dollar in a year’s time, driven in part by Japan’s interest rate differentials with the US.
QuantStreet July 2026 Letter: Sector Rotation
The most interesting shift in market price action in June was the strong outperformance of value stocks compared to the broad market and tech
Does AI Raise or Lower Neutral Rates?
A growing share of central bankers argue that artificial intelligence will ultimately push neutral interest rates higher. Intuitively, if AI boosts productivity and lifts long-run growth, then households have less incentive to save, pushing up the real neutral rate.
The Tsunami of European Bank Mergers
Most global investors are not attuned to what can be seen on the horizon, not far from shore. After the Great Financial Crisis, Europe was slow to address the underlying capital issues. Rather than guillotining the problems, they allowed a slow bleed to take place.
The World Didn’t Break: 2026 Mid-Year Investment Outlook
Midway through 2026, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Global Investment Outlook framework remains a valuable lens—but the landscape has shifted.
Six Ways to Put Volatility to Work
The war in Iran has delivered an oil shock into a bond market that had not fully shaken inflation pressures. Higher energy prices have revived concerns about the path of inflation just as central banks were edging toward rate cuts, forcing a reassessment of what investors require to hold long-term bonds. That reassessment is now playing out in higher long-term yields and steeper yield curves globally.