Commentary

Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Up, Confidence Down

Last week’s data tracked a shifting economic trajectory over the last several months. While the latest reading on first-quarter GDP confirms the economy started the year with steady growth, subsequent inflation metrics moved higher and ultimately weighed on consumer confidence.

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Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: May 2026

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Win Streak Continues with Multiple Record Highs

Building on the last week's strength, the S&P 500 rose every day this week and set multiple new record highs. With a 1.6% weekly increase, the index secured its ninth straight weekly gain, matching its longest winning streak from 2023.

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Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 29, 2026

The yield on the 10-year note finished May 29, 2026 at 4.45% while the 2-year note ended at 3.98%.

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Chicago PMI Surges to 4-Year High

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index surged 13.5 points in May to a four-year high of 62.7, signaling an expansion in regional business activity. This marks the largest monthly increase since 2020 and was significantly higher than the projected 50.6.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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GDP Per Capita: Q1 2026 Second Estimate

The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 1.62%, an acceleration from 0.48% for the Q4 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.44%, a pickup from 0.18% for the Q4 headline number.

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An Inside Look at the Q1 2026 GDP Second Estimate

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2026 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

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Two Measures of Inflation: April 2026

Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.3% and core CPI at 2.8%.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.05% in April and was up 2.68% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.44% month-over-month and down 1.04% year-over-year.

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New Home Sales Fall 6% in April as Median Price Surges

New home sales fell more than expected in April while the median price experienced its largest jump in seven years.

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Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down 0.5% in April

With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up down 0.10% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.50%.

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Durable Goods Orders Jump 7.9% in April, More Than Expected

New orders for manufactured durable goods jumped 7.9% in April to $345.96B, almost twice as much as the projected 4.0% monthly growth.

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Q1 GDP Second Estimate: Real GDP at 1.6%, Lower Than Expected

U.S. economic growth rebounded at the beginning of 2026, according to the BEA’s latest estimate. Real GDP rose at 1.6% annual rate in Q1, falling short of the 2.0% forecast but marking an acceleration from the 0.5% final estimate seen in Q4 of last year.

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Core PCE Inflation at 3.3% in April, Highest Level Since 2023

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.3% year-over-year in April. This marks the highest level since November 2023 and marks a steady pickup from March's 3.2% reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.2%.