Every year in early July, we update our interactive Periodic Table of Commodities Returns to reflect the performance of raw materials in the first six months of the year. Maybe I’m biased, but I believe it’s one of the clearest snapshots of the commodities landscape you’ll find anywhere.
While tariff uncertainty hasn’t completely disappeared, it has diminished, and firms are feeling less uncertain about the future.
As put by one observer, “We rule the world. The world doesn’t know this yet.” One is reminded of a remark by economic historian Dharma Kumar about Cambridge nearly a century ago, “Time is a device to prevent everything from happening all at once; space is a device to prevent it all happening in Cambridge.”
Dividend growth investing is inherently long-term in nature. The philosophy emphasizes companies capable of growing earnings, cash flow, and dividends over time, with the goal of generating a growing income stream alongside capital appreciation potential.
What makes this earnings setup truly unique is the behavior of Wall Street analysts over the last 90 days. Because corporate guidance tends to be conservative, analysts historically cut estimates ahead of time.
The AI capex risk profile has gotten sharper since then, and the argument needs tightening in a few places. The bull case and the tail risk are now the same buildout, but they are running in different directions.
Despite geopolitical headwinds, the broader macro backdrop remained constructive in the first half of the year. Economic growth proved resilient, consumers kept spending and the S&P 500 gained 10%. That favorable mix drove strong earnings growth, with S&P 500 earnings rising 27% year over year in 1Q26, led by the tech sector.
Markets enter the second half of 2026 facing a familiar wall of worry—geopolitical conflict, oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and questions around the durability of an AI-led equity rally. Yet the economic backdrop still looks resilient: growth remains solid, inflation has moderated, unemployment is reasonable, and market leadership appears to be broadening.
Fixed income experts James Donahue, John Lloyd and Mike Talaga revisit the levels of supply related to the AI buildout and explain why they remain cautious towards investment grade tech issuance.
Russell Investments is getting new owners. An investor consortium led by B Capital, a global multi-stage investment firm, has agreed to acquire the asset manager from TA Associates and Reverence Capital Partners. The group also includes the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), according to a Thursday press release.
The yield on the 10-year note finished July 10, 2026 at 4.56% while the 2-year note ended at 4.21%.
The Federal Aviation Administration is resurrecting the dream of passengers flying faster than the speed of sound after it recently proposed lifting a ban on supersonic flights over land, which has been in place for more than five decades.
The US equity market, with the S&P 500 hovering near all-time highs, is expensive. This isn’t controversial. Depending on which measure you use, US stocks have arguably been overpriced for several years.
The Great Moderation has given way to a more volatile era, where inflation shocks and market dispersion favor flexibility and diversification.
One of the bigger questions facing advisors and investors right now revolves around credit. Inflation, volatility, and Fed rate hikes all loom, potentially heightening credit risk for portfolios. Navigating that risk may be a crucial task in the second half of this year.
Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor reviews a strong second quarter for emerging markets, where AI and reindustrialization were key drivers of investor returns.
Assessing the year so far, much of the portfolios’ declines have been a compression of valuations, not a deterioration of earnings. For many of our holdings, the two have moved in opposite directions. Revenues, profitability, and cash flow have continued to build, even as the multiples placed against them have fallen.
Investors are often drawn to healthcare for its innovation and long-term growth potential. Yet in practice, allocations are often concentrated in a few large pharmaceutical companies, whether through direct stock picking or index weightings.
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in June.
June's employment report showed that 17.6% of total employed workers were part time and 82.4% of total employed workers were full-time.
Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% in June as the median home price surged to a record high of $440,600.
The small-cap stock rally we highlighted back in April has continued over the past few months, driven by factors such as robust U.S. economic growth disproportionately benefiting smaller, domestically focused businesses and the AI capital spending boom spreading to smaller tech and energy companies.
One notable group has been absent from the 2026 stock rally: the American tech giants that have charged a nearly four-year bull run.
ClearBridge Investments: Although markets often pause to digest after large gains, history suggests these episodes usually prove fleeting, meaning major indexes could move higher in the second half of 2026.
For much of the last decade, investing felt relatively one dimensional. Falling inflation, near zero interest rates and abundant liquidity rewarded long duration growth assets, compressed dispersion and made passive exposure difficult to challenge.
On June 30, Defiance debuted the new Defiance KSM TipRanks Analyst ETF (RANK). With an expense ratio of 60 basis points, this fund aims to leverage Wall Street’s highest-rated analyst consensus data to capitalize on U.S. market momentum.
The capital markets have become an increasingly complex space for investors, complexities that are heightened by the sheer number of ways one can invest.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the June 2026 close.
After years of working with advisors and studying client behavior, the reasons clients leave come down to three core patterns. They are predictable. They are preventable. And they almost always trace back to a conversation that never happened in the first meeting.
I have spent the better part of my career watching how organizations manage access to sensitive data — who has it, who should have it, and how long it takes anyone to notice when those two things stop matching. In financial services, that gap tends to be measured in months.
Rising prices increase the value of collateral in every margin account, which automatically increases how much each investor can borrow under Reg T. Debt rises BECAUSE the market rose, not the reverse. That single fact is what breaks the ratios we’re about to examine, and it lies at the core of why margin debt risk is so often misjudged.
Royce Investment Partners: In this second quarter recap, Francis Gannon discusses how US small-and micro-cap stocks have continued to lead the US equity market in a robust period for equities.
Fixed income transition costs are increasingly driven by what happens in credit markets. As credit trading becomes more efficient, the cost of transitioning fixed income portfolios is coming down, and how those transitions are executed is changing too.
The first half of 2026 has provided a considerable amount of news for investors to digest. Notably, equity markets were higher by nearly 10%, oil prices spiked over 50% before retreating nearly back to where they started, there is a new Chair of the Federal Reserve in Kevin Warsh, and AI infrastructure spending surged.
Stocks staged a powerful recovery in Q2. The S&P 500 gained 15% and closed near record highs as oil round-tripped back to pre-conflict levels, AI enthusiasm returned, and the rally broadened well beyond the handful of names that led the market for three years.
Significant interest appears to be accumulating around capacity expansion in the market. The primary mechanism driving this activity may be a structural capital expenditure cycle (CapEx). One where a prevailing market dynamic could transform one company’s CapEx directly into another company’s revenue. .
AI may reshape the labor market in ways that are difficult to predict, and it won’t be the first time this has happened. In the short term, the labor market appears to have stabilized and there are some early signs of acceleration.
Steven Pinker's latest book digs into why the knowledge we hold in common matters and how it helps society operate more smoothly.
The U.S. trade deficit expanded over 40% in May to $77.59B, its widest gap since March 2025. The latest reading missed the forecast of -$78.30B.
Private equity may be our No. 1 economic boogeyman. It is blamed for rising real estate prices, poor medical care, and ruining many of the businesses we used to love.
Global equities rebounded in the second quarter as confidence in the AI investment cycle strengthened. As the third quarter begins, we believe markets have become priced for a smooth and profitable AI build-out, leaving little margin for error. June’s sharp sell-off in the Magnificent Seven stocks underscored how quickly sentiment can shift when crowded AI trades are priced for near-flawless execution.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Close to 40 years ago, I moved from Canada to the U.S. after acquiring a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors. I’ve built my entire life and career here, and in all that time, I’ve never stopped marveling at my adopted country.
Seven of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through July 6, 2026.
The U.S. Treasury launched the Trump Accounts for childhood wealth building. Discover the five low-cost index ETFs anchoring the program.
What is remarkable about Livermore is that his rules are still incredibly valuable. The markets he traded in no longer exist. The technology, the communication speeds, and the regulatory framework of his day are unrecognizable compared to today. But the principles and behavioral patterns he identified are as operational in 2026 as they were a hundred years ago.
Wage growth peaked four years ago. Since 1985, it has led CPI by three to seventeen months in every single cycle. The May 4.2% inflation print is the noise. Watch the wages.
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global rose 0.5 points to 51.2, indicating a modest rise in service sector activity. The latest reading was just below the forecast of 51.3 and marked the strongest expansion in four months.
The US industrial robot industry is characterized by low growth and highly customized projects. Artificial intelligence holds out the hope to change that, especially when it comes to robots that can move and work safely around humans.
The most interesting shift in market price action in June was the strong outperformance of value stocks compared to the broad market and tech
This week, the Fourth of July, the 250th birthday of the greatest experiment in self-governance the world has ever seen, I want to do something different. I want to celebrate. And I want to use a lens I genuinely did not expect to be reaching for: the reactions of soccer fans from around the world who came to the United States for the 2026 FIFA World Cup and discovered, to their own astonishment, that they loved it.
Federal estate taxes may not affect most households, but state death taxes can still be significant. Learn key planning considerations and strategies to help preserve wealth.
The strong run by the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 the last few years has loaded portfolios with heavy concentration risk. As a tiny group of mega cap tech giants shapes the market, finding meaningful diversification has become a priority for advisors. Data from last week’s VettaFi Mid-Year Market Outlook Symposium confirms that wealth managers are actively looking down the market-cap spectrum to rebalance risk.
Productivity is an essential component of economic success. It allows for growth without inflation; compensates for demographic deficits; and helps nations attract investment.
Today’s market backdrop reflects a tension between expectations and reality. Despite higher oil prices and plenty of geopolitical noise, the US economy remains resilient and durable, supported by steady consumer spending, a labor market finding its footing, ongoing fiscal support and a surge in AI and infrastructure investment.
Slate Auto, the electric vehicle start-up backed by Jeff Bezos, is a grand experiment in whether austerity sells — and a warning for the US auto sector.
Travel on all roads and streets decreased in May. The 12-month moving average was down 0.06% month-over-month but was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% month-over-month and up 0.32% year-over-year.
Vehicle sales rose to their highest level in nine months in June, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.523 million units. This represents a 2.8% increase from the previous month and a 4.4% rise from one year ago.
The artificial intelligence boom has a power problem, and Wall Street is betting billions on companies that promise to solve it — even if some of the technology hasn’t been fully developed yet.
A look at the resilient global economy, evolving market opportunities, and key risks shaping the investment outlook.
Global stocks surged during the second quarter as oversold conditions in March and de-escalation in the Middle East created ripe conditions for a rally. In the United States, the large-cap S&P 500 index climbed by 13%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 index increased by nearly 25% (yCharts).
June saw strong market fundamentals once again in conflict with macroeconomic uncertainties, creating a choppy market. While a durable peace plan with Iran is seemingly underway, investors have regarded the negotiations with caution, pricing in potential setbacks.
Markets may have ended the first quarter with a thud, but stocks put another record run in the books to close out the first half of 2026. The U.S. ETF market had already shattered records, crossing the $15 trillion threshold and cruising past $1 trillion in net inflows right before summer officially began.
Home prices fell for a second straight month in April according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, as the housing slowdown intensifies. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index dropped 0.1% month-over-month and was up 0.8% year-over-year.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of June 2026, the weekly average stood at 4.44%.
As growth stumbled, the S&P 500 Momentum Index captures a 7.5% gain in June and a 44% gain in the second quarter.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 53.3 in June, down from 54.0 in May, marking slightly slower growth. The latest reading was just below the 53.8 forecast and is the index's sixth straight month in expansion territory.
U.S. manufacturing expanded for an eleventh straight month in June but the growth eased to its lowest level in three months. The S&P Global PMI fell 1.2 points to 53.9 last month, falling short of the 55.7 forecast.
July is a great time to buy stocks. In fact, it’s been the best month for the S&P 500 Index in the past two decades. Bulls are finding comfort in that history ahead of what stands to be an eventful stretch.
A strong quarter across major indexes. The second quarter is winding down and what a quarter it has been with the S&P 500 up 12.6% quarter to date, while the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 are both up over 20%. Despite some twists and turns, the path of least resistance for stocks broadly remained up and to the right for much of the last three months.
Startup equity decisions often happen before a founder has a full advisory team in place. Formation documents get signed, vesting schedules are approved, and the tax consequences may not feel urgent because the company is still young.
In our view, this divergence continues to reflect how the buildout of artificial intelligence (AI) is influencing both the economy and markets as it progresses across the value chain, even as the associated costs continue to climb.
Geopolitics, artificial intelligence, and inflation each took their turn commanding market attention last week. U.S. equities were mixed, as a pullback in technology names masked broadening performance beneath the surface.
For decades, financial advisors have built strong relationships by helping clients manage IRAs, taxable accounts, and rollover assets after they leave an employer. Meanwhile, a significant, often the largest pool, of client wealth has quietly remained out of reach: assets inside workplace retirement plans.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index cooled 6.0 points in June to 56.7, signaling an expansion in regional business activity for a second straight month. The latest reading was higher than the projected 55.7.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) retreated in April, falling 0.1% from the previous month's record high to 441.4.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® inched up in June, rising 0.6 points to 91.2. Despite the improvement, the index came in below the forecast of 94.4.
Chip stocks are heading for their best quarter ever, extending an extraordinary start to the year driven by insatiable demand for artificial intelligence equipment. But after recent jitters sent the stocks tumbling, investors are wondering how much further the rally can go.
Meme mania swept through Wall Street in 2021. Retail investors gathered on social media and coordinated trading strategies to short squeeze high-profile hedge funds.
Ten years ago this week, the world watched the United Kingdom vote to walk away from the European Union. While the political class was clutching its pearls and every talking head on television was promising Armageddon by Christmas, I told you something different.
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
It’s hard to believe we’re nearing the halfway point of 2026 – and what an eventful start it’s been. Markets have pushed through a geopolitically driven energy shock, rising inflation pressures and accelerating disruption from the artificial intelligence boom.
The top 10 active ETFs YTD by fund flows show some intriguing trends and successful names that may pique the interest.
Jesse Livermore’s prolific trading stories about the fortunes he made and lost are well documented in two books. While his career was marked by the incredible volatility of his wealth, and some consider him a failure as he died broke, his market knowledge is invaluable. Accordingly, we share his 21 market rules.
The way the SPIVA U.S. Scorecard evaluates performance is not well aligned with the experience of investors. Adjusting for this reveals a more balanced view of active fund performance. While active and passive U.S. equity funds perform similarly, active bond funds tend to outperform.
Microsoft Corp. shares are heading for their worst month in years as investors continue to fret about how the software giant will fare in a world marked by artificial intelligence.
The Federal Reserve’s new chairman, Kevin Warsh, plans to convene no fewer than five task forces to review the central bank’s methods and operations. They will ask how the Fed can improve its communications, balance-sheet policy, use of data, understanding of “productivity and jobs in an era of transformation,” and delivery of price stability.
From our experience participating in Fed meetings, we know that the dot plot has never been universally embraced within the institution. The concern was not that it lacked informational value, but rather that markets interpreted it as a forecast, which was never its intended purpose. Forward guidance is meant to shape expectations and influence behavior, not to serve as a firm prediction of future policy decisions.
Small Cap
Lithium Was the Top Performing Commodity in H1
Every year in early July, we update our interactive Periodic Table of Commodities Returns to reflect the performance of raw materials in the first six months of the year. Maybe I’m biased, but I believe it’s one of the clearest snapshots of the commodities landscape you’ll find anywhere.
Tariff Pass-Through Is Not Over
While tariff uncertainty hasn’t completely disappeared, it has diminished, and firms are feeling less uncertain about the future.
School for Scoundrels
As put by one observer, “We rule the world. The world doesn’t know this yet.” One is reminded of a remark by economic historian Dharma Kumar about Cambridge nearly a century ago, “Time is a device to prevent everything from happening all at once; space is a device to prevent it all happening in Cambridge.”
The Evolution of Dividend Growth Investing in the ETF Era
Dividend growth investing is inherently long-term in nature. The philosophy emphasizes companies capable of growing earnings, cash flow, and dividends over time, with the goal of generating a growing income stream alongside capital appreciation potential.
Q2 2026 Earnings Preview: Navigating High Expectations, Tariff Rebates, and War Uncertainties
What makes this earnings setup truly unique is the behavior of Wall Street analysts over the last 90 days. Because corporate guidance tends to be conservative, analysts historically cut estimates ahead of time.
AI Capex Risk Cuts Both Ways In The American Economy
The AI capex risk profile has gotten sharper since then, and the argument needs tightening in a few places. The bull case and the tail risk are now the same buildout, but they are running in different directions.
Four Themes to Watch as Earnings Season Shifts into Focus
Despite geopolitical headwinds, the broader macro backdrop remained constructive in the first half of the year. Economic growth proved resilient, consumers kept spending and the S&P 500 gained 10%. That favorable mix drove strong earnings growth, with S&P 500 earnings rising 27% year over year in 1Q26, led by the tech sector.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook: A Soft Landing Meets a Broader Market
Markets enter the second half of 2026 facing a familiar wall of worry—geopolitical conflict, oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and questions around the durability of an AI-led equity rally. Yet the economic backdrop still looks resilient: growth remains solid, inflation has moderated, unemployment is reasonable, and market leadership appears to be broadening.
Is the Credit Market Unprepared for the Level of Tech Supply?
Fixed income experts James Donahue, John Lloyd and Mike Talaga revisit the levels of supply related to the AI buildout and explain why they remain cautious towards investment grade tech issuance.
Russell Investments Gets New Owners as ETFs Gain Steam
Russell Investments is getting new owners. An investor consortium led by B Capital, a global multi-stage investment firm, has agreed to acquire the asset manager from TA Associates and Reverence Capital Partners. The group also includes the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), according to a Thursday press release.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: July 10, 2026
The yield on the 10-year note finished July 10, 2026 at 4.56% while the 2-year note ended at 4.21%.
The Return to Flying Faster Than Sound Will Start Small
The Federal Aviation Administration is resurrecting the dream of passengers flying faster than the speed of sound after it recently proposed lifting a ban on supersonic flights over land, which has been in place for more than five decades.
Where to Invest Now as US Stock Markets Get Bubbly
The US equity market, with the S&P 500 hovering near all-time highs, is expensive. This isn’t controversial. Depending on which measure you use, US stocks have arguably been overpriced for several years.
Great Moderation Era: Drift(ing) Away
The Great Moderation has given way to a more volatile era, where inflation shocks and market dispersion favor flexibility and diversification.
American Century’s Greenblath Talks Credit Risk on Schwab Network
One of the bigger questions facing advisors and investors right now revolves around credit. Inflation, volatility, and Fed rate hikes all loom, potentially heightening credit risk for portfolios. Navigating that risk may be a crucial task in the second half of this year.
2026 Q2 CIO Review and Outlook
Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor reviews a strong second quarter for emerging markets, where AI and reindustrialization were key drivers of investor returns.
Q2 2026 Baird Chautauqua International and Global Growth Fund Commentary
Assessing the year so far, much of the portfolios’ declines have been a compression of valuations, not a deterioration of earnings. For many of our holdings, the two have moved in opposite directions. Revenues, profitability, and cash flow have continued to build, even as the multiples placed against them have fallen.
Healthcare Investing: Finding Growth Beyond Pharmaceuticals
Investors are often drawn to healthcare for its innovation and long-term growth potential. Yet in practice, allocations are often concentrated in a few large pharmaceutical companies, whether through direct stock picking or index weightings.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: June 2026
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Long-Term Trends for Multiple Jobholders in the US: June 2026
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in June.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: June 2026
June's employment report showed that 17.6% of total employed workers were part time and 82.4% of total employed workers were full-time.
Existing Home Sales Drop in June as Median Prices Hit All-Time High
Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% in June as the median home price surged to a record high of $440,600.
Small Caps Deliver Big Gains
The small-cap stock rally we highlighted back in April has continued over the past few months, driven by factors such as robust U.S. economic growth disproportionately benefiting smaller, domestically focused businesses and the AI capital spending boom spreading to smaller tech and energy companies.
Magnificent Seven’s Weakness Is Starting to Become a Problem for Wall Street
One notable group has been absent from the 2026 stock rally: the American tech giants that have charged a nearly four-year bull run.
The Long View: Not a Straight Line
ClearBridge Investments: Although markets often pause to digest after large gains, history suggests these episodes usually prove fleeting, meaning major indexes could move higher in the second half of 2026.
The Case for Active Small Caps
For much of the last decade, investing felt relatively one dimensional. Falling inflation, near zero interest rates and abundant liquidity rewarded long duration growth assets, compressed dispersion and made passive exposure difficult to challenge.
Harnessing Consensus & Momentum: Defiance Debuts RANK ETF
On June 30, Defiance debuted the new Defiance KSM TipRanks Analyst ETF (RANK). With an expense ratio of 60 basis points, this fund aims to leverage Wall Street’s highest-rated analyst consensus data to capitalize on U.S. market momentum.
Direct indexing: An innovative and Customizable Capital Markets Strategy
The capital markets have become an increasingly complex space for investors, complexities that are heightened by the sheer number of ways one can invest.
The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq: Real Returns Since 2000 Peak (June 2026)
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the June 2026 close.
Inoculate Before They Leave: How a Proactive Strategy Stops Client Attrition
After years of working with advisors and studying client behavior, the reasons clients leave come down to three core patterns. They are predictable. They are preventable. And they almost always trace back to a conversation that never happened in the first meeting.
Independent Advisors Are Usually the Last to Know About a Breach
I have spent the better part of my career watching how organizations manage access to sensitive data — who has it, who should have it, and how long it takes anyone to notice when those two things stop matching. In financial services, that gap tends to be measured in months.
Margin Debt Risk: The Ratios That Mislead Investors
Rising prices increase the value of collateral in every margin account, which automatically increases how much each investor can borrow under Reg T. Debt rises BECAUSE the market rose, not the reverse. That single fact is what breaks the ratios we’re about to examine, and it lies at the core of why margin debt risk is so often misjudged.
US Small-Caps Stay on Top in the Second Quarter
Royce Investment Partners: In this second quarter recap, Francis Gannon discusses how US small-and micro-cap stocks have continued to lead the US equity market in a robust period for equities.
Execution Efficiency Redefines Fixed Income Transitions
Fixed income transition costs are increasingly driven by what happens in credit markets. As credit trading becomes more efficient, the cost of transitioning fixed income portfolios is coming down, and how those transitions are executed is changing too.
Mid-Year Update
The first half of 2026 has provided a considerable amount of news for investors to digest. Notably, equity markets were higher by nearly 10%, oil prices spiked over 50% before retreating nearly back to where they started, there is a new Chair of the Federal Reserve in Kevin Warsh, and AI infrastructure spending surged.
2026 Q2 Market Recap (Mid-year Review) & Q3 Outlook
Stocks staged a powerful recovery in Q2. The S&P 500 gained 15% and closed near record highs as oil round-tripped back to pre-conflict levels, AI enthusiasm returned, and the rally broadened well beyond the handful of names that led the market for three years.
Observations of An Industrial Revolution
Significant interest appears to be accumulating around capacity expansion in the market. The primary mechanism driving this activity may be a structural capital expenditure cycle (CapEx). One where a prevailing market dynamic could transform one company’s CapEx directly into another company’s revenue. .
Creative Destruction, Momentum, SpaceX
AI may reshape the labor market in ways that are difficult to predict, and it won’t be the first time this has happened. In the short term, the labor market appears to have stabilized and there are some early signs of acceleration.
The Emperor’s No Clothes: Steven Pinker on What We Think That Others Know
Steven Pinker's latest book digs into why the knowledge we hold in common matters and how it helps society operate more smoothly.
Trade Deficit Expands Over 40% in May
The U.S. trade deficit expanded over 40% in May to $77.59B, its widest gap since March 2025. The latest reading missed the forecast of -$78.30B.
Private Equity for Everyone Is Getting Out of Hand
Private equity may be our No. 1 economic boogeyman. It is blamed for rising real estate prices, poor medical care, and ruining many of the businesses we used to love.
AI Enthusiasm Leaves Little Margin for Error
Global equities rebounded in the second quarter as confidence in the AI investment cycle strengthened. As the third quarter begins, we believe markets have become priced for a smooth and profitable AI build-out, leaving little margin for error. June’s sharp sell-off in the Magnificent Seven stocks underscored how quickly sentiment can shift when crowded AI trades are priced for near-flawless execution.
Who’s Right? Two-Year Yields or Two-Year Breakeven Rates?
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
250 Years In, and the Case for America Has Never Been Stronger
Close to 40 years ago, I moved from Canada to the U.S. after acquiring a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors. I’ve built my entire life and career here, and in all that time, I’ve never stopped marveling at my adopted country.
World Markets Watchlist: July 6, 2026
Seven of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through July 6, 2026.
Initial 5-ETF Lineup Released for Newly Launched Trump Accounts
The U.S. Treasury launched the Trump Accounts for childhood wealth building. Discover the five low-cost index ETFs anchoring the program.
More Market Wisdom From Jesse Livermore
What is remarkable about Livermore is that his rules are still incredibly valuable. The markets he traded in no longer exist. The technology, the communication speeds, and the regulatory framework of his day are unrecognizable compared to today. But the principles and behavioral patterns he identified are as operational in 2026 as they were a hundred years ago.
Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator
Wage growth peaked four years ago. Since 1985, it has led CPI by three to seventeen months in every single cycle. The May 4.2% inflation print is the noise. Watch the wages.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Reaches 4-Month High
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global rose 0.5 points to 51.2, indicating a modest rise in service sector activity. The latest reading was just below the forecast of 51.3 and marked the strongest expansion in four months.
AI Promises to Transform Robotics, Just Not Yet
The US industrial robot industry is characterized by low growth and highly customized projects. Artificial intelligence holds out the hope to change that, especially when it comes to robots that can move and work safely around humans.
QuantStreet July 2026 Letter: Sector Rotation
The most interesting shift in market price action in June was the strong outperformance of value stocks compared to the broad market and tech
The Great American Sleepover
This week, the Fourth of July, the 250th birthday of the greatest experiment in self-governance the world has ever seen, I want to do something different. I want to celebrate. And I want to use a lens I genuinely did not expect to be reaching for: the reactions of soccer fans from around the world who came to the United States for the 2026 FIFA World Cup and discovered, to their own astonishment, that they loved it.
Planning Considerations for State Death Taxes
Federal estate taxes may not affect most households, but state death taxes can still be significant. Learn key planning considerations and strategies to help preserve wealth.
Beyond the Megacaps: Advisors Eye Small- and Midcap Strategies
The strong run by the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 the last few years has loaded portfolios with heavy concentration risk. As a tiny group of mega cap tech giants shapes the market, finding meaningful diversification has become a priority for advisors. Data from last week’s VettaFi Mid-Year Market Outlook Symposium confirms that wealth managers are actively looking down the market-cap spectrum to rebalance risk.
The Business Of The World Cup
Productivity is an essential component of economic success. It allows for growth without inflation; compensates for demographic deficits; and helps nations attract investment.
Investing Outlook: Strength, Surprises and the Road Ahead
Today’s market backdrop reflects a tension between expectations and reality. Despite higher oil prices and plenty of geopolitical noise, the US economy remains resilient and durable, supported by steady consumer spending, a labor market finding its footing, ongoing fiscal support and a surge in AI and infrastructure investment.
The Bezos Backed $25,000 EV That Should Worry Detroit
Slate Auto, the electric vehicle start-up backed by Jeff Bezos, is a grand experiment in whether austerity sells — and a warning for the US auto sector.
America's Driving Habits: May 2026
Travel on all roads and streets decreased in May. The 12-month moving average was down 0.06% month-over-month but was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% month-over-month and up 0.32% year-over-year.
Vehicle Sales Reach 9-Month High in June
Vehicle sales rose to their highest level in nine months in June, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.523 million units. This represents a 2.8% increase from the previous month and a 4.4% rise from one year ago.
AI Power Crunch Has Investors Seeking Next IPO Winners
The artificial intelligence boom has a power problem, and Wall Street is betting billions on companies that promise to solve it — even if some of the technology hasn’t been fully developed yet.
Global Investment Outlook—Resilience
A look at the resilient global economy, evolving market opportunities, and key risks shaping the investment outlook.
Third Quarter Commentary: Tailwinds Return as Energy Prices Ease
Global stocks surged during the second quarter as oversold conditions in March and de-escalation in the Middle East created ripe conditions for a rally. In the United States, the large-cap S&P 500 index climbed by 13%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 index increased by nearly 25% (yCharts).
June Review: Markets Remain Resilient Amid Oil and Inflation Uncertainty
June saw strong market fundamentals once again in conflict with macroeconomic uncertainties, creating a choppy market. While a durable peace plan with Iran is seemingly underway, investors have regarded the negotiations with caution, pricing in potential setbacks.
The Q2 Flowdown: ETFs Smash Records to Start Summer
Markets may have ended the first quarter with a thud, but stocks put another record run in the books to close out the first half of 2026. The U.S. ETF market had already shattered records, crossing the $15 trillion threshold and cruising past $1 trillion in net inflows right before summer officially began.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index: Home Price Growth Remains Constrained
Home prices fell for a second straight month in April according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, as the housing slowdown intensifies. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index dropped 0.1% month-over-month and was up 0.8% year-over-year.
10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: June 2026
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of June 2026, the weekly average stood at 4.44%.
S&P Factor Performance Highlights Momentum in June & Q2
As growth stumbled, the S&P 500 Momentum Index captures a 7.5% gain in June and a 44% gain in the second quarter.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slightly Slower Expansion in June
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 53.3 in June, down from 54.0 in May, marking slightly slower growth. The latest reading was just below the 53.8 forecast and is the index's sixth straight month in expansion territory.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Growth Slips to 3-Month Low Despite Expansion
U.S. manufacturing expanded for an eleventh straight month in June but the growth eased to its lowest level in three months. The S&P Global PMI fell 1.2 points to 53.9 last month, falling short of the 55.7 forecast.
S&P Winning Streak for July at Risk With Volatile End to Month
July is a great time to buy stocks. In fact, it’s been the best month for the S&P 500 Index in the past two decades. Bulls are finding comfort in that history ahead of what stands to be an eventful stretch.
Has Stock Market Exuberance Become Irrational?
A strong quarter across major indexes. The second quarter is winding down and what a quarter it has been with the S&P 500 up 12.6% quarter to date, while the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 are both up over 20%. Despite some twists and turns, the path of least resistance for stocks broadly remained up and to the right for much of the last three months.
83(b) Election for Startup Equity: What Founders Need to Know
Startup equity decisions often happen before a founder has a full advisory team in place. Formation documents get signed, vesting schedules are approved, and the tax consequences may not feel urgent because the company is still young.
Markets Broaden as AI Costs Rise and Inflation Pressures Linger
In our view, this divergence continues to reflect how the buildout of artificial intelligence (AI) is influencing both the economy and markets as it progresses across the value chain, even as the associated costs continue to climb.
Megacap Weakness, AI Momentum, and Hawkish Fed Repricing Drive Markets
Geopolitics, artificial intelligence, and inflation each took their turn commanding market attention last week. U.S. equities were mixed, as a pullback in technology names masked broadening performance beneath the surface.
The Overlooked Opportunity Inside Workplace Retirement Plans
For decades, financial advisors have built strong relationships by helping clients manage IRAs, taxable accounts, and rollover assets after they leave an employer. Meanwhile, a significant, often the largest pool, of client wealth has quietly remained out of reach: assets inside workplace retirement plans.
Chicago PMI Cools in June but Maintains Expansion
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index cooled 6.0 points in June to 56.7, signaling an expansion in regional business activity for a second straight month. The latest reading was higher than the projected 55.7.
FHFA House Price Index Retreats from Record High
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) retreated in April, falling 0.1% from the previous month's record high to 441.4.
Consumer Confidence Inched Down in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® inched up in June, rising 0.6 points to 91.2. Despite the improvement, the index came in below the forecast of 94.4.
Chip Stocks’ Best Quarter Ever Is Ending With Some Wild Swings
Chip stocks are heading for their best quarter ever, extending an extraordinary start to the year driven by insatiable demand for artificial intelligence equipment. But after recent jitters sent the stocks tumbling, investors are wondering how much further the rally can go.
An Epic David vs. Goliath Stock Battle Is Underway
Meme mania swept through Wall Street in 2021. Retail investors gathered on social media and coordinated trading strategies to short squeeze high-profile hedge funds.
Four Lessons Brexit Taught Me About Gold and Protecting Your Wealth
Ten years ago this week, the world watched the United Kingdom vote to walk away from the European Union. While the political class was clutching its pearls and every talking head on television was promising Armageddon by Christmas, I told you something different.
Rotation Nation. Large-Cap Growth on Sale.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The Credit Market Lens: What BDC Redemptions and NAV Pressures Mean for Investors
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
Markets: What to Watch Midway Through 2026
It’s hard to believe we’re nearing the halfway point of 2026 – and what an eventful start it’s been. Markets have pushed through a geopolitically driven energy shock, rising inflation pressures and accelerating disruption from the artificial intelligence boom.
What the Top 10 Active ETFs YTD Can Tell Us
The top 10 active ETFs YTD by fund flows show some intriguing trends and successful names that may pique the interest.
Old Lessons From Jesse Livermore for Today’s Market
Jesse Livermore’s prolific trading stories about the fortunes he made and lost are well documented in two books. While his career was marked by the incredible volatility of his wealth, and some consider him a failure as he died broke, his market knowledge is invaluable. Accordingly, we share his 21 market rules.
The SPIVA Scorecard Does Not Capture the Actual Experience of Investors
The way the SPIVA U.S. Scorecard evaluates performance is not well aligned with the experience of investors. Adjusting for this reveals a more balanced view of active fund performance. While active and passive U.S. equity funds perform similarly, active bond funds tend to outperform.
Microsoft’s $530 Billion Rout Sets Up Its Worst Month Since 2008
Microsoft Corp. shares are heading for their worst month in years as investors continue to fret about how the software giant will fare in a world marked by artificial intelligence.
The Fed Needs to Follow the Rules. But Which One?
The Federal Reserve’s new chairman, Kevin Warsh, plans to convene no fewer than five task forces to review the central bank’s methods and operations. They will ask how the Fed can improve its communications, balance-sheet policy, use of data, understanding of “productivity and jobs in an era of transformation,” and delivery of price stability.
Fed Conundrum: Are Rates Restrictive?
From our experience participating in Fed meetings, we know that the dot plot has never been universally embraced within the institution. The concern was not that it lacked informational value, but rather that markets interpreted it as a forecast, which was never its intended purpose. Forward guidance is meant to shape expectations and influence behavior, not to serve as a firm prediction of future policy decisions.