Large Cap Growth

In a relatively light week for traditional economic data, a mix of corporate earnings, business surveys, Federal Reserve minutes, and the latest read on the consumer from the University of Michigan helped paint an increasingly clear picture for investors.

It’s the first word that comes to mind to describe Q1 2026 U.S. company earnings. S&P 500 earnings growth is looking set to reach 28% year over year (yoy), more than double the consensus estimate of 12% at the start of the reporting season.

The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has transitioned from an equity market narrative to a defining force in fixed income. Hyperscalers (Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG/L), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL)) are shifting from internal cash flows to substantial bond issuance to fund massive data center, graphics processing unit (GPU), and power infrastructure buildouts.

US growth stocks underperformed in early 2026 amid AI disruption fears and an unresolved conflict in the Middle East. But these stresses could create favorable conditions for selective, diversified investors to unlock long-term growth potential in a rotating market.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) made a big announcement this week, touting $100 billion in total ETF AUM. The milestone comes following the firm’s recent acquisition of Innovator ETFs adding several notable funds to the firm’s overall roster.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Global equity markets moved modestly higher this week as first-quarter earnings season continued to deliver strong results.

Despite these higher costs, a projected 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home this weekend, setting a new record. Close to 40 million will drive while some 3.7 million will fly.

Yes, we have been there before, only to be disappointed. But the market smells a real settlement to open Hormuz, and WTI oil briefly dipped below 90 for the first time in weeks. If an opening occurs, expect the market to continue its march upward, as the momentum trade gathers strength.

Despite headwinds from rising oil prices, fundamentals have remained strong. The S&P 500 has notched 18 record highs year to date and, more importantly, surpassed our prior target of 7,250. Following a standout 1Q earnings season, we are raising our 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $326 from $300.

On May 26, 1896, Charles Dow calculated a simple arithmetic average of 12 industrial stocks and arrived at a closing value of 40.94. Now, exactly 130 years later, that same benchmark has crossed the historic 50,000 threshold.

Private markets (private equity, private credit and real estate) have historically delivered an “illiquidity premium”. Institutions and family offices have recognized this illiquidity premium and have historically allocated significant capital to capture it.

Artificial intelligence (AI) might be the talk of the town these days, but quantum computing is the quiet thunder rumbling in the background. It just got much louder with the U.S. White House commiting to roll out a massive $2 billion funding package distributed across nine quantum computing companies.

Industry discussions on Janus Henderson’s ETF lineup are typically centered around its fixed income funds given the firm’s history in this asset class. However, the issuer also has equity ETFs that are garnering attention, which include a fund that’s close to crossing the $1 billion assets under management (AUM) threshold: the Janus Henderson Small-Mid Cap Growth Alpha ETF (JSMD).

Stephen Dover shares key insights from the Franklin Equity team about how artificial intelligence is changing the economics of the software industry.

Nvidia is now a textbook fit for quality-focused indexes in ETFs given its strong underlying business fundamentals. The company has become the smartest kid in the quality classroom, scoring exceptionally high on metrics like high return on equity (ROE), strong return on invested capital (ROIC), stable earnings growth, and low balance sheet leverage.

Stocks’ rally off the March 30 lows has been nothing short of wild, with internal market dynamics showing some performance divergences that we haven’t seen for decades. For example, in the first 6 weeks of the rally, the S&P 500 Growth index beat the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index by more than any other 6-week window on record.

Model portfolios are a key pillar for asset managers competing for advisor and investor attention. They offer straightforward, pre-packaged tools that help investors target and achieve specific financial goals. Designing and operating models, however, takes a particular set of skills. Goldman Sachs Asset Management recently made a big hire therein.

With mega tech AI capital expenditure projected to cross a staggering $660 billion to $750 billion, according to estimates from firms like Goldman Sachs, CreditSights and Bloomberg, saying the stakes are high for Nvidia and the AI ecosystem is an understatement. It’s no wonder we can focus on little else this week.

While most institutional investors recognize that private equity and public equity share similar economic risks, they often seem to ignore how their aggregate equity portfolio is affected by their substantial allocation to private equity.

Right now, AAI’s two highest 10-year expected return forecasts are for large-cap value equity strategies outside the United States—Emerging Markets RAFI and Dev ex US Large RAFI. AAI’s expected return model anticipates valuations for equity strategies to mean revert and therefore tends to elevate out-of-favor regions and styles, predicting higher future returns for recently underperforming equity indices.

Enterprise software is undergoing its most significant reset in a generation. Artificial intelligence (AI) is reallocating value within software—creating clear winners and exposing vulnerabilities in business models that have worked well for the past two decades. We believe investors who treat software as a uniform asset class will make costly mistakes.

Institutional investors have spent years hearing about the promise of artificial intelligence. That phase is giving way to a more practical question: not whether AI can create more scale, but whether that scale can be governed, validated, and translated into better fiduciary decisions. For OCIO providers, AI without discipline is not an advantage.

The consumer is still spending, but with a higher level of caution. Inflation remains a persistent pressure point, particularly for lower- and middle-income households. This has caused the U.S. personal saving rate to fall to 3.6% as of March 2026, leaving significantly less breathing room for discretionary purchases.

LPL Research examines rising inflation risks amid geopolitical tensions, while resilient growth and strong investment support continued expansion.

It’s human nature to allow familiar patterns to guide our decision-making processes. But it’s just as important to recognize when changing conditions warrant a rethink. Return patterns in global equity markets appear to be shifting in ways that should prompt investors to revisit their allocations.

The exchange-traded fund marketplace continues to expand. Now with more than $20 trillion in assets under management ($14 trillion in the U.S., growing at an 18% five-year annualized clip), 2026’s volatility and emerging investment themes have taken the universe to new heights.

The "four horsemen" of the labor market are the unemployment rate, hiring rate, layoff rate, and vacancy rate. Analyzing them together may sharpen investors' read on the economy.

Inflation surged higher in April, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumping 3.8 per cent from 3.3 per cent in March and the Producer Price Index (PPI) up six per cent from four per cent in March. The increase in the CPI owed much to energy and food prices.

The rapid deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) is evident; 99% of CEOs say their companies are investing in the technology. Apparently, AI is also quick at garnering assets. Launched less than three months ago, the Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS) is already approaching the $100 million mark in assets under management (AUM).

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

That Buffett cash hoard has also created a lot of speculation, innuendo, and assumptions, which is what I want to walk through in today’s discussion. Primarily, what that cash hoard actually represents, the popular theories explaining it, and what it really costs shareholders to hold.

Markets ended last week under pressure as the optimism that had been building around a potential geopolitical breakthrough faded quickly. The China summit did not deliver the progress that had been hoped for. The Boeing aircraft order was smaller than expected; there was no meaningful movement on Iran; the Taiwan issue was brought forward in a way that unsettled markets; and the hoped-for easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz did not materialize.

One thing most people don’t know is that prior to the invention of the Fed, other than during wars, there was almost no inflation. Various sources including the Federal Reserve regional banks show the purchasing power of $1 in 1900 was the same as or higher than it was in 1800.

If Donald Trump and Xi Jinping's Beijing summit produces a sustained Sino-American trade truce and a path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, that will give the world economy something it has lacked for the past year and half: a reduction in tail risks. In a year when so much has gone wrong, that is a welcome prospect.

I’ve long been a student of game theory, the branch of mathematics that studies how rational actors make decisions when their outcomes depend on what everyone else does. It’s a helpful framework for understanding markets and geopolitics, and right now, there’s no better place to apply it than Taiwan.

A frequently asked question in recent weeks is whether the market is simply ignoring the risks stemming from the current geopolitical conflict, especially given the spike in oil prices that has pushed inflation pressures higher.

The artificial intelligence (AI) evolution moves at breakneck speed. While generative AI is still a significant part of the underlying investment thesis, physical AI is rapidly accruing momentum.

The summit in Beijing between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered little in the way of diplomatic breakthroughs but bears important cross-asset implications.

Leadership transitions at the Federal Reserve (Fed) are rare. Only seven individuals have served as Fed chair since the 1970s, underscoring how infrequent turnover is at the Fed’s top job. That rarity is why investors pay close attention when a new chair is appointed, especially when the incoming leader brings a different perspective. Kevin Warsh has been a vocal critic of Fed policy and communication in recent years.

Against this challenging macro backdrop, a stark divergence is expected as major retailers report earnings next week. Discounters are projected to perform well, with Walmart (WMT) expected to outpace Target (TGT) by gaining market share from high-income households trading down for groceries, while Target remains more vulnerable due to its heavier mix of discretionary goods.

The stagflation narrative dominating financial social media isn’t completely wrong. That’s what makes it so dangerous. After more than 30 years of managing client portfolios through actual inflationary cycles, not watching them on YouTube, I’ve learned that the most damaging investment advice isn’t built on outright lies.

First quarter 2026 earnings were stronger than expected and we think that there might be continued strength in the second quarter, unless there is a major macro shift.

Explore how Women in ETFs & CFAOC experts believe AI will supplement, not replace, financial professionals.

AI is surely the zeitgeist at industry conferences across sectors right now. Emerging technology, increased efficiency, and scalability are all talking points. But so too are headcount reductions, reduced tech-sector free cash flow, and growing worries about a 1990s-like bubble.

Investing in emerging markets (EM) used to be synonymous with getting exposure to China. It’s an ideal notion, given that it’s the second largest economy and thus commands a heavy weight in standard EM benchmarks. Challenging that narrative today is a changing geopolitical landscape, which continues as U.S. president Donald Trump visits China in a high-stakes meeting between the two economic superpowers.

High-growth technology stocks still dominate the investment landscape, fueled by the promise of AI. But recent signs of a broadening market are revealing that more industries beyond just tech are positioned to benefit. We think large-cap value stocks are well-poised for this shift, especially since AI can be both a disruptive and driving force in today’s dynamic market.

It’s likely not a bubble. Earnings are high. Prices are high because they anticipate future high earnings growth. The historical record shows that growth rate is achievable.