Many debates in defined contribution (DC) circles focus on fees, new asset classes, and ever more complex solutions. But the biggest improvement available to plan participants may come from something far simpler: how their fixed income is managed.
Risk appetite remains firmly intact as optimism surrounding a potential resolution to the war with Iran continues to improve investor sentiment. The S&P 500 has now advanced for eight consecutive weeks, with price action remaining remarkably resilient throughout the recovery.
Recent market volatility and the conflict in Iran have understandably pushed many emerging market investors to the sidelines. But periods of uncertainty have historically offered attractive entry points into emerging market debt (EMD), particularly when underlying fundamentals are improving and asset flows are likely to increase.
California continues to demonstrate fiscal resilience, supported by strong liquidity balances and the absence of projected cash‑flow borrowing through FY 2026–27. However, Medicaid cost pressures, a progressive tax structure highly sensitive to equity market swings, and constitutional spending constraints remain key differentiators between California and other large states.
Bankers are preparing to sell a jumbo debt package to support the $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. It’s a risky deal and comes at a moment when the bond markets have been wobbling.
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has transitioned from an equity market narrative to a defining force in fixed income. Hyperscalers (Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG/L), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL)) are shifting from internal cash flows to substantial bond issuance to fund massive data center, graphics processing unit (GPU), and power infrastructure buildouts.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Private markets (private equity, private credit and real estate) have historically delivered an “illiquidity premium”. Institutions and family offices have recognized this illiquidity premium and have historically allocated significant capital to capture it.
Since the post-COVID recovery began, U.S. nonfinancial corporations have generally managed capital conservatively. They have kept credit metrics stable and, in many cases, actively improved them. That discipline was not entirely voluntary: The sharp adjustment in funding costs triggered by the Federal Reserve’s 2022–2023 rate hiking cycle raised the bar for incremental borrowing and pushed management teams toward balance sheet restraint.
For private equity firms, capital flexibility is prized today. Merger-and-acquisition (M&A) activity has cooled, while commodity prices and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven disruption have heated up, creating uncertainty for investors. This makes it more challenging to sell portfolio companies, so private equity firms are holding investments longer. As a result, many firms are turning to net asset value (NAV) loans for capital needs.
Private credit managers are increasingly turning to the once-unthinkable: Trading in and out of loans to dump troubled assets and hunt for bargains amid the industry’s first stress test after years of breakneck growth.
From the April payroll report released on May 8, we realize that not all industries are equally impacted by AI. Diagnostic imaging centers, an area where AI is thought to replace humans, have increased demand for workers, whereas bookkeeping demand has declined in recent years.
Even if armchair investors are fleeing private credit or panicking that their unlisted shares in Anthropic PBC are now invalid, the long-term trend is clear: Public markets keep losing ground to private funds.
In fixed income investing, trade execution plays an important role in overall portfolio performance. The ability to source bonds efficiently, invest capital thoughtfully and execute trades at competitive prices can directly affect investor returns.
The Texas Permanent School Fund bought more than 29 million shares totaling about $740 million worth of the State Street IG Public & Private Credit ETF, trading under the ticker PRIV, in the first quarter, according to a filing Friday.
For shareholders, the upside justifies the gamble. For bondholders, the downside is real and the upside belongs to someone else. That wedge – the classic asset substitution problem – is what credit investors are increasingly pricing, and until the re-leveraging impulse shows signs of reaching a plateau, the divergence across the capital structure is likely here to stay.
Emerging market debt is compelling as a medium‑term structural allocation, particularly for investors seeking to diversify away from concentrated U.S. exposures.
Tax-equivalent yields on high-quality munis are hitting 7% to 9%. Discover how WisdomTree ETFs, WTMU and WTMY, exploit the steep yield curve.
Investors need to understand what they own, how it may perform in different environments, and why it is structured the way it is. When advisors build this education into their work, it gives clients the discipline and expectations they need to stay the course when volatility rears its head.
In this thought provoking presentation, Chuck Carnevale, co founder of FAST Graphs and widely known as “Mr. Valuation,” challenges one of Wall Street’s most accepted investing principles, the traditional 60/40 portfolio split between stocks and bonds. Drawing from decades of investment experience, Chuck explains why he believes blindly allocating large portions of retirement assets to fixed income may actually increase long term financial risk rather than reduce it.
U.S. inflation and rates remain elevated. Credit markets continue to show resilience. Opportunities are emerging across securitized and high yield assets
First quarter 2026 earnings were stronger than expected and we think that there might be continued strength in the second quarter, unless there is a major macro shift.
Emerging markets bonds and the related ETFs are delivering for investors. Meanwhile, other, supposedly more dependable, less risky corners of the bond market are dithering. Market participants can capitalize on that trend with the VanEck Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBX), which is coming off an impressive showing last month.
With tensions simmering in the Middle East and the global economy feeling the pinch of high energy prices, high-yield bonds might not be on every investor’s radar. In our view, they should be.
What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.
Yields for preferred securities have generally risen more than corporate bond and long-term Treasury yields over the past few months, making them more attractive to investors.
Stock markets have been hitting all-time highs and credit spreads remain low, yet higher interest rates and mounting floating-rate debt are straining lower-rated borrowers. This tension is surfacing first in leveraged loans as “quiet defaults” become more common — opening up a dynamic set of opportunities for investors specialized in stressed and distressed assets.
Apollo Global Management Inc. announced last week that it will soon provide daily pricing for its private credit. It may not sound like a big move, but its decision to lift the veil on these assets could be the most impactful development in financial markets and investing in a long time.
April delivered a constructive backdrop for preferred securities, with the ICE BofA Fixed-Rate Preferred Securities Index rebounding 2.23% and bringing YTD returns back into positive territory at 0.8%.
Artificial intelligence (AI) leadership is no longer a developed-market monopoly. Emerging markets (EM) now have their own AI champions, and productivity gains may follow. For bond investors, we expect the implications to differ by country—driven by industry composition, capital intensity, digital infrastructure and speed to adoption.
Many have drawn the comparison between the current AI buildout with the dotcom period in the late 1990s, when the infrastructure for the internet was built. It’s a sensible comparison to make because of the massive amount of capital deployed to commercialize the buildout of revolutionary and life-changing technology.
Typically, an investor’s traditional bond portfolio begins with a cornerstone, or core holding of some sort. From either a strategic or tactical perspective, a core fixed income position provides the investor with some ballast to help anchor any other strategies that may be included.
The logic of balanced investing is straightforward: equities drive long-term growth, bonds provide income and ballast when stocks fall, and the combination delivers a smoother ride than either asset alone. For decades, the 60/40 portfolio has been the default framework for good reason – it has worked, often brilliantly, across multiple market cycles.
Psychology plays a larger role in our investing lives than many of us care to admit. Often, when investing, we would be better off being a bit more robotic and a bit less human. The reason behind this is often our feelings influence our decisions in ways that are not always to our advantage.
Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
United Airlines Holding Inc. is returning to the municipal bond market with a junk-rated $256 million sale, after last year’s volatility forced it to postpone the deal.
LPL Research explores how a potential Warsh-led Fed could reshape policy, Treasury markets, and volatility amid rising deficits and shifting demand.
What to do? Does one capitulate and chase the bubble at the highest valuations in history? Does one wring their hands at the prospect of a bubble that might only go higher and higher forever without end? My hope is that this month’s comment will offer both perspective and confidence that it is not necessary to chase current extremes, nor to be anxious even about the possibility of steeper ones.
As equity markets transition into 2026, large cap equity portfolio managers share a surprisingly consistent framework — paired with sharp disagreements on where risk and opportunity sit. A survey of large growth, value, and blend managers reveals a market shifting away from simple narratives toward selectivity, fundamentals, and manager skill.
In a recent Market Outlook Symposium we hosted at VettaFi, we learned that 2026 has marked the return of fixed income as a strong contributor to an investor’s total return. We also learned that the biggest theme in fixed income investing this year is dispersion. Where you are putting your money to work matters.
LPL Research examines overlooked tech growth, assessing strong earnings, AI skepticism, and valuation opportunities for investors.
Thus far 2026 has been a roller coaster year for fixed income markets. The 10-year Treasury, the benchmark rate for the bond market, saw its yield trade as low as 3.94% and as high as 4.43%.
A persistent oil shock implies higher inflation and weaker growth, but risk assets appear unfazed, with equities and credit spread performance diverging from the caution implied by government bonds.
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are leading the process, according to people familiar with the matter. A large majority of the financing is expected to be in the form of debt, with the rest equity, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information.
The complication is that the ceasefires stopped the escalation without resolving the underlying disruption. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil supply, remains effectively closed. Oil prices fell sharply on the ceasefire announcements (including the largest single-day decline since 2020), then climbed back above $100 per barrel.
April showers came in the form of more inflows raining down on the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market last month. Assets under management (AUM) have now grown to a staggering $14.7 trillion for the year. That’s punctuated by year-to-date (YTD) net inflows of over $636 billion.
What a week this was! On Tuesday, I participated on a panel at the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, where I discussed why Bitcoin miners have a head start in the race for AI compute.
The part of the bond ETF complex that’s growing fastest isn’t that part. It’s the active and outcome-oriented funds — multisector strategies, flexible income vehicles, securitized credit funds, options-overlay products — that charge 0.30 to 1 percentage point and promise more yield, less duration, or both. And the marketing pitch behind them quietly elides something important.
April showed us just how sensitive markets can be to a small number of powerful forces: energy prices, inflation and geopolitical risk. The conflict in the Middle East dominated headlines, with a ceasefire helping to steady markets even as energy prices remained elevated.
The sharp rebound from the March lows has pushed most major equity indexes back to record highs. This upside momentum has been fueled in part by signs of de-escalation with Iran and growing expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon.
The European Union (EU), pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals, is significantly recalibrating its emissions compliance regime with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This new border tax intends to promote fair competition amid varying emissions rules and costs. Our research suggests it could also offer insight into profitability as the rising costs to meet carbon limits weigh on corporate financial health, creating winners and losers.
As multi-asset income investors, we seek to help a wide range of clients meet their income needs. The benefits of an income-centric approach are especially relevant for investors as they enter retirement – and that’s especially true today. We bring that to life with two case studies.
Meta Platforms Inc. is looking to sell between $20 billion and $25 billion of investment-grade bonds, according to people with knowledge of the transaction, as the Facebook parent boosts spending on infrastructure for the artificial intelligence boom.
A quarterly report providing an in-depth analysis of the global economic landscape, key drivers and insights into fixed-income markets for investors.
Sentiment toward BDCs – funds that invest in small and midsize private U.S. businesses – has improved since early March. BDC bond spreads have stabilized and outperformed the broader investment grade (IG) index, suggesting credit investors are increasingly comfortable with downside risk.
Global Head of Securitised Products John Kerschner and Portfolio Manager Ian Bettney from Janus Henderson’s Global Securitised Team examine how CLOs and other securitised credit have weathered recent volatility, and why selectivity and active management remain central to capturing opportunities across the market.
With the proverbial ceasefire negotiation can kicked down the road for the second time in a week, the U.S. and Iran remain in a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz.
The defining feature of a Ponzi scheme is that it persuades investors to pay for future cash flows that, at least in part, don’t actually exist, while creating the impression that those cash flows imply an attractive return on the price investors pay. If we look carefully at the record valuation extremes in the equity market, and the wildly elevated profit margins that investors appear to view as permanent, we can already see the potential for difficult, even tragic outcomes for investors.
In elevated financial markets, risk is rarely eliminated. It is usually only relocated. During the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, mortgage risk did not disappear. It was transformed, repackaged, and spread across the system in ways that made it appear safer than it was.
The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base.
It’s the big story so far in 2026. Alongside AI, geopolitical market volatility is creating dislocations for investors to target. While some are more immediate and some are longer term, the ETF wrapper offers strategies that can attack all kinds of sectors. In corporate bonds, for example, growing volatility could create opportunities.
Clients may love the relative safety of cash, but many advisors know those assets could do more. A multisector bond approach for example, offers plenty of rewards for those willing to dive in. The right ETF can give tax efficient exposure to the space, providing both yield and total return.
As a more than $20 billion borrowing frenzy to build out data centers descended on the junk-bond market this year, some issuers offered up a rare sweetener: an early cash payback.
The spring edition of our Investment Directions takes on a new look. As the weather heats up, our “summer body” of work embraces a slimmed down word count, Q&A format, and visualfirst approach – better for consuming on the go, or preferably, outdoors.
Kevin Warsh's bid to become the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unfolded amid sharp political tension, legal uncertainty, and pointed questions about his independence from President Trunp. During a combative Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh sought to reassure lawmakers that he would not allow political pressure to dictate monetary policy, even as unresolved Justice Department investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell threatens to delay his confirmation and underscores broader concerns about the politicization of the central bank.
During and after World War II, Allied forces established airbases across remote Pacific Islands, bringing with them food, medicine, tools, and machinery that the indigenous people had never encountered before.
After years weighing how to dive deeper into private credit, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s $4.3 trillion asset manager is committing to a strategy that will plow tens of billions of dollars into loans sourced by the firm’s commercial bankers.
Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy have moved back into the investment spotlight. Over the past week, both multilateral institutions and prominent policymakers have raised warnings about the potential implications of America’s expanding debt burden for Treasury markets.
When advisors and investors hear the terms “high yield” or “junk” as it relates to bonds, they understandably have some apprehension. After all, junk bonds carry elevated credit risk relative to their investment-grade peers. Hence the higher yields, which act as added compensation for the extra risk.
Fixed-income market sentiment was dominated by geopolitical headlines, particularly the conflict in the Middle East following disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices, which contributed to renewed inflation concerns.
The U.S. market story this year has been a tug-of-war between sticky inflation, slower growth, and resilient risk appetite. For fixed-income investors, that mix has produced more narrative movement than the 10-year Treasury itself.
Vanguard is boosting its holdings of Treasuries, taking advantage of higher yields following the Middle East conflict to lock in rates and hedge against the risks of a potential growth slowdown.
LPL Research examines the fixed income space as global bonds broaden yields and reduce U.S. concentration, offering diversified income and resilience via non‑U.S. developed and emerging markets.
While Russ acknowledges that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has contributed near-term volatility, he also notes that these rising tensions are occurring against the backdrop of a solid U.S. economy.
Over the past year, LPL Research’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) has emphasized that tactical investing does not require constant activity. Instead, it requires preparation, patience, and the discipline to act only when the expected benefit of a change clearly outweighs the risks.
“Diversification” has been the driving principle of investing and risk management for generations. But what does it mean to be “diversified?”
Rising oil prices and the historically inflationary aspects of war have changed expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy and have pulled Treasury yields higher.
In what should be a surprise to no one, energy has been one of the better performing sectors since the joint U.S.-Israel airstrikes on military targets in Iran on February 27, although it has given up some ground since a two-week cease fire was announced last week.
Despite a confluence of economic shocks in the first quarter, markets have held up remarkably well, but cracks appear to be forming beneath the surface.
Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement.
The Middle East ceasefire sparked a relief rally last week as markets dialed back the risk of a deep, drawn‑out oil supply shock. Stocks have already erased much of the post-conflict drop. Bonds haven’t gotten the memo: Yields are still elevated, keeping a bit of extra term premium on the table.
New ETF launches address concentration and liquidity risks exposed by volatile markets through active and passive strategies.
A ceasefire in the Middle East is the latest twist for investors who have grown increasingly reactive to each new headline. Volatility has surged: prior to the ceasefire, the VIX had roughly doubled this year and averaged 25 in March—about 67% above year-end levels—underscoring just how uncertain the path forward has been.
The general field called “credit” has seen massive innovation over the course of my career. An Oaktree colleague asked me about the developments that brought the credit sector to where it is today. I came up with the following list.
The traditional 60/40 portfolio is undergoing a structural renovation, but the fixed income sleeve is proving difficult to stabilize.
Private markets benefited enormously from the post-Great Financial Crisis era of ultralow interest rates that stretched through much of the 2010s and into the early 2020s. Amid regulatory change and muted returns in traditional fixed income during this time, investors were increasingly pushed into alternative areas of capital markets in search of yield.
The first quarter of the year has offered an early reminder that markets rarely move in straight lines. After the extraordinary enthusiasm that carried investors through 2025, much of it centered on the promise of artificial intelligence, the new year has quickly reintroduced elements of uncertainty.
Corporate Credit
The Retirement Hack Hiding Inside Most DC Plans
Many debates in defined contribution (DC) circles focus on fees, new asset classes, and ever more complex solutions. But the biggest improvement available to plan participants may come from something far simpler: how their fixed income is managed.
Technical Take on the Record-High Rally
Risk appetite remains firmly intact as optimism surrounding a potential resolution to the war with Iran continues to improve investor sentiment. The S&P 500 has now advanced for eight consecutive weeks, with price action remaining remarkably resilient throughout the recovery.
Why Now Is the Time to Revisit Emerging Market Debt
Recent market volatility and the conflict in Iran have understandably pushed many emerging market investors to the sidelines. But periods of uncertainty have historically offered attractive entry points into emerging market debt (EMD), particularly when underlying fundamentals are improving and asset flows are likely to increase.
California Municipals: What Matters Now
California continues to demonstrate fiscal resilience, supported by strong liquidity balances and the absence of projected cash‑flow borrowing through FY 2026–27. However, Medicaid cost pressures, a progressive tax structure highly sensitive to equity market swings, and constitutional spending constraints remain key differentiators between California and other large states.
The Ellison Family’s $49 Billion Ask Is an Acid Test for Markets
Bankers are preparing to sell a jumbo debt package to support the $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. It’s a risky deal and comes at a moment when the bond markets have been wobbling.
AI’s New Frontier: The Transformation of Investment-Grade Credit
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has transitioned from an equity market narrative to a defining force in fixed income. Hyperscalers (Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG/L), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL)) are shifting from internal cash flows to substantial bond issuance to fund massive data center, graphics processing unit (GPU), and power infrastructure buildouts.
Fundamental Backdrop Strong. Watch for Pullbacks.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The Cost of Being Too Liquid
Private markets (private equity, private credit and real estate) have historically delivered an “illiquidity premium”. Institutions and family offices have recognized this illiquidity premium and have historically allocated significant capital to capture it.
AI Credit Expansion: Assessing the Micro and Macro Risks
Since the post-COVID recovery began, U.S. nonfinancial corporations have generally managed capital conservatively. They have kept credit metrics stable and, in many cases, actively improved them. That discipline was not entirely voluntary: The sharp adjustment in funding costs triggered by the Federal Reserve’s 2022–2023 rate hiking cycle raised the bar for incremental borrowing and pushed management teams toward balance sheet restraint.
NAV Loans: Flexibility for Private Equity When Holding Periods Extend
For private equity firms, capital flexibility is prized today. Merger-and-acquisition (M&A) activity has cooled, while commodity prices and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven disruption have heated up, creating uncertainty for investors. This makes it more challenging to sell portfolio companies, so private equity firms are holding investments longer. As a result, many firms are turning to net asset value (NAV) loans for capital needs.
Private Credit’s Unthinkable Becomes Reality as Trading Revs Up
Private credit managers are increasingly turning to the once-unthinkable: Trading in and out of loans to dump troubled assets and hunt for bargains amid the industry’s first stress test after years of breakneck growth.
How AI May Increase Jobs, Not Replace Them
From the April payroll report released on May 8, we realize that not all industries are equally impacted by AI. Diagnostic imaging centers, an area where AI is thought to replace humans, have increased demand for workers, whereas bookkeeping demand has declined in recent years.
A Simple Way to Avoid Messes Like the Anthropic Shares Shock
Even if armchair investors are fleeing private credit or panicking that their unlisted shares in Anthropic PBC are now invalid, the long-term trend is clear: Public markets keep losing ground to private funds.
Trading Fixed Income SMAs at Scale for Execution Advanta
In fixed income investing, trade execution plays an important role in overall portfolio performance. The ability to source bonds efficiently, invest capital thoughtfully and execute trades at competitive prices can directly affect investor returns.
Texas Fund Revealed as Big Backer of State Street Credit ETF
The Texas Permanent School Fund bought more than 29 million shares totaling about $740 million worth of the State Street IG Public & Private Credit ETF, trading under the ticker PRIV, in the first quarter, according to a filing Friday.
From the US Market Desk: Now What?
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
What Would The Merton Model Say About AI Capital Spending?
For shareholders, the upside justifies the gamble. For bondholders, the downside is real and the upside belongs to someone else. That wedge – the classic asset substitution problem – is what credit investors are increasingly pricing, and until the re-leveraging impulse shows signs of reaching a plateau, the divergence across the capital structure is likely here to stay.
Why Now Is the Time to Revisit Emerging Market Debt
Emerging market debt is compelling as a medium‑term structural allocation, particularly for investors seeking to diversify away from concentrated U.S. exposures.
WisdomTree Office Hours: Unlocking Value in Laddered Munis
Tax-equivalent yields on high-quality munis are hitting 7% to 9%. Discover how WisdomTree ETFs, WTMU and WTMY, exploit the steep yield curve.
What ‘Smart Defense’ Actually Means in Practice
Investors need to understand what they own, how it may perform in different environments, and why it is structured the way it is. When advisors build this education into their work, it gives clients the discipline and expectations they need to stay the course when volatility rears its head.
The Best Asset Allocation Strategy for Safety, Income and Total Return
In this thought provoking presentation, Chuck Carnevale, co founder of FAST Graphs and widely known as “Mr. Valuation,” challenges one of Wall Street’s most accepted investing principles, the traditional 60/40 portfolio split between stocks and bonds. Drawing from decades of investment experience, Chuck explains why he believes blindly allocating large portions of retirement assets to fixed income may actually increase long term financial risk rather than reduce it.
Sticky Inflation Tests Markets as Credit Holds Firm
U.S. inflation and rates remain elevated. Credit markets continue to show resilience. Opportunities are emerging across securitized and high yield assets
Schwab Market Perspective
First quarter 2026 earnings were stronger than expected and we think that there might be continued strength in the second quarter, unless there is a major macro shift.
Emerging Markets Bonds Still Look Good Compared to Treasuries
Emerging markets bonds and the related ETFs are delivering for investors. Meanwhile, other, supposedly more dependable, less risky corners of the bond market are dithering. Market participants can capitalize on that trend with the VanEck Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBX), which is coming off an impressive showing last month.
Five Timely Opportunities in Today’s High-Yield Market
With tensions simmering in the Middle East and the global economy feeling the pinch of high energy prices, high-yield bonds might not be on every investor’s radar. In our view, they should be.
The Fed Sees Dissents Amid a Fluctuating Economy
What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.
Preferreds Might Offer Value Amid Volatility
Yields for preferred securities have generally risen more than corporate bond and long-term Treasury yields over the past few months, making them more attractive to investors.
‘Quiet Defaults’ Are Driving a More Compelling Backdrop for Opportunistic Credit
Stock markets have been hitting all-time highs and credit spreads remain low, yet higher interest rates and mounting floating-rate debt are straining lower-rated borrowers. This tension is surfacing first in leveraged loans as “quiet defaults” become more common — opening up a dynamic set of opportunities for investors specialized in stressed and distressed assets.
Apollo’s Pricing Plan Will Transform Private Credit
Apollo Global Management Inc. announced last week that it will soon provide daily pricing for its private credit. It may not sound like a big move, but its decision to lift the veil on these assets could be the most impactful development in financial markets and investing in a long time.
Rates Rally, Spreads Tighten and Preferreds Rebound
April delivered a constructive backdrop for preferred securities, with the ICE BofA Fixed-Rate Preferred Securities Index rebounding 2.23% and bringing YTD returns back into positive territory at 0.8%.
The Next Frontier for AI Disruption?
Artificial intelligence (AI) leadership is no longer a developed-market monopoly. Emerging markets (EM) now have their own AI champions, and productivity gains may follow. For bond investors, we expect the implications to differ by country—driven by industry composition, capital intensity, digital infrastructure and speed to adoption.
Using the Late 90s as a Comp, the AI Boom Still Has Legs
Many have drawn the comparison between the current AI buildout with the dotcom period in the late 1990s, when the infrastructure for the internet was built. It’s a sensible comparison to make because of the massive amount of capital deployed to commercialize the buildout of revolutionary and life-changing technology.
What’s ‘Under the Hood’ of Your Core Bond Position?
Typically, an investor’s traditional bond portfolio begins with a cornerstone, or core holding of some sort. From either a strategic or tactical perspective, a core fixed income position provides the investor with some ballast to help anchor any other strategies that may be included.
The Case for Liquid Alternatives in Today’s Environment
The logic of balanced investing is straightforward: equities drive long-term growth, bonds provide income and ballast when stocks fall, and the combination delivers a smoother ride than either asset alone. For decades, the 60/40 portfolio has been the default framework for good reason – it has worked, often brilliantly, across multiple market cycles.
Create an Emotional Foundation
Psychology plays a larger role in our investing lives than many of us care to admit. Often, when investing, we would be better off being a bit more robotic and a bit less human. The reason behind this is often our feelings influence our decisions in ways that are not always to our advantage.
What a Move!
Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
United Revives Junk-Rated Muni Sale for Its Biggest Kitchen Ever
United Airlines Holding Inc. is returning to the municipal bond market with a junk-rated $256 million sale, after last year’s volatility forced it to postpone the deal.
Warsh, Policy Direction, and Treasury Market Consequences
LPL Research explores how a potential Warsh-led Fed could reshape policy, Treasury markets, and volatility amid rising deficits and shifting demand.
(More) Roses Amid Garbage and Trap Doors
What to do? Does one capitulate and chase the bubble at the highest valuations in history? Does one wring their hands at the prospect of a bubble that might only go higher and higher forever without end? My hope is that this month’s comment will offer both perspective and confidence that it is not necessary to chase current extremes, nor to be anxious even about the possibility of steeper ones.
AI, Healthcare, and Volatility: Positioning for 2026
As equity markets transition into 2026, large cap equity portfolio managers share a surprisingly consistent framework — paired with sharp disagreements on where risk and opportunity sit. A survey of large growth, value, and blend managers reveals a market shifting away from simple narratives toward selectivity, fundamentals, and manager skill.
Beyond the Agg: Dispersion a 2026 Theme in Bond ETFs
In a recent Market Outlook Symposium we hosted at VettaFi, we learned that 2026 has marked the return of fixed income as a strong contributor to an investor’s total return. We also learned that the biggest theme in fixed income investing this year is dispersion. Where you are putting your money to work matters.
AI Wave Continues to Power Technology Earnings Boom
LPL Research examines overlooked tech growth, assessing strong earnings, AI skepticism, and valuation opportunities for investors.
Fixed Income Looks Attractive Again
Thus far 2026 has been a roller coaster year for fixed income markets. The 10-year Treasury, the benchmark rate for the bond market, saw its yield trade as low as 3.94% and as high as 4.43%.
Making Sense of a Cross-Asset Disconnect
A persistent oil shock implies higher inflation and weaker growth, but risk assets appear unfazed, with equities and credit spread performance diverging from the caution implied by government bonds.
Meta Taps Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan for New Data Center Deal
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are leading the process, according to people familiar with the matter. A large majority of the financing is expected to be in the form of debt, with the rest equity, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information.
New Highs, $100 Oil, and the AI Bet That’s Splitting Tech in Two
The complication is that the ceasefires stopped the escalation without resolving the underlying disruption. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil supply, remains effectively closed. Oil prices fell sharply on the ceasefire announcements (including the largest single-day decline since 2020), then climbed back above $100 per barrel.
Earnings Drive Stock Prices
Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
April Showers Bring a Deluge of ETF Inflows
April showers came in the form of more inflows raining down on the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market last month. Assets under management (AUM) have now grown to a staggering $14.7 trillion for the year. That’s punctuated by year-to-date (YTD) net inflows of over $636 billion.
Nations Are Scrambling for AI Sovereignty. Bitcoin Miners Hold the Keys.
What a week this was! On Tuesday, I participated on a panel at the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, where I discussed why Bitcoin miners have a head start in the race for AI compute.
The Bond ETF Sales Pitch Is Only Half the Story
The part of the bond ETF complex that’s growing fastest isn’t that part. It’s the active and outcome-oriented funds — multisector strategies, flexible income vehicles, securitized credit funds, options-overlay products — that charge 0.30 to 1 percentage point and promise more yield, less duration, or both. And the marketing pitch behind them quietly elides something important.
April Review: Markets Advance Through Global Volatility
April showed us just how sensitive markets can be to a small number of powerful forces: energy prices, inflation and geopolitical risk. The conflict in the Middle East dominated headlines, with a ceasefire helping to steady markets even as energy prices remained elevated.
Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not
The sharp rebound from the March lows has pushed most major equity indexes back to record highs. This upside momentum has been fueled in part by signs of de-escalation with Iran and growing expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon.
Carbon Emissions Compliance May Redefine Corporate Strength
The European Union (EU), pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals, is significantly recalibrating its emissions compliance regime with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This new border tax intends to promote fair competition amid varying emissions rules and costs. Our research suggests it could also offer insight into profitability as the rising costs to meet carbon limits weigh on corporate financial health, creating winners and losers.
Why an Income-Centric Approach Matters for Investing in Retirement
As multi-asset income investors, we seek to help a wide range of clients meet their income needs. The benefits of an income-centric approach are especially relevant for investors as they enter retirement – and that’s especially true today. We bring that to life with two case studies.
Meta Looks to Raise as Much as $25 Billion With Jumbo Bond Sale
Meta Platforms Inc. is looking to sell between $20 billion and $25 billion of investment-grade bonds, according to people with knowledge of the transaction, as the Facebook parent boosts spending on infrastructure for the artificial intelligence boom.
The Big Picture: Second Quarter 2026
A quarterly report providing an in-depth analysis of the global economic landscape, key drivers and insights into fixed-income markets for investors.
Differing Signals in BDCs, and Orderly Defaults in High Yield
Sentiment toward BDCs – funds that invest in small and midsize private U.S. businesses – has improved since early March. BDC bond spreads have stabilized and outperformed the broader investment grade (IG) index, suggesting credit investors are increasingly comfortable with downside risk.
Securitised and CLOs: Resilience, Diversification and the Case for Active
Global Head of Securitised Products John Kerschner and Portfolio Manager Ian Bettney from Janus Henderson’s Global Securitised Team examine how CLOs and other securitised credit have weathered recent volatility, and why selectivity and active management remain central to capturing opportunities across the market.
Paper vs. Physical: What Tighter Oil Supplies Could Mean
With the proverbial ceasefire negotiation can kicked down the road for the second time in a week, the U.S. and Iran remain in a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz.
Causes and Conditions
The defining feature of a Ponzi scheme is that it persuades investors to pay for future cash flows that, at least in part, don’t actually exist, while creating the impression that those cash flows imply an attractive return on the price investors pay. If we look carefully at the record valuation extremes in the equity market, and the wildly elevated profit margins that investors appear to view as permanent, we can already see the potential for difficult, even tragic outcomes for investors.
Extreme Earnings Forecasts Mask Stock Market Risk
In elevated financial markets, risk is rarely eliminated. It is usually only relocated. During the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, mortgage risk did not disappear. It was transformed, repackaged, and spread across the system in ways that made it appear safer than it was.
American Industrial Renaissance: Fact or Fiction?
The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base.
Rising Volatility Reveals Opportunities in Corporate Bonds
It’s the big story so far in 2026. Alongside AI, geopolitical market volatility is creating dislocations for investors to target. While some are more immediate and some are longer term, the ETF wrapper offers strategies that can attack all kinds of sectors. In corporate bonds, for example, growing volatility could create opportunities.
Multisector Bond ETF FUSI Gets 5-Star Rating From Morningstar
Clients may love the relative safety of cash, but many advisors know those assets could do more. A multisector bond approach for example, offers plenty of rewards for those willing to dive in. The right ETF can give tax efficient exposure to the space, providing both yield and total return.
AI Junk-Bond Binge Brings Rare Early Repayments to Sweeten Deals
As a more than $20 billion borrowing frenzy to build out data centers descended on the junk-bond market this year, some issuers offered up a rare sweetener: an early cash payback.
BlackRock's Spring 2026 Investment Directions
The spring edition of our Investment Directions takes on a new look. As the weather heats up, our “summer body” of work embraces a slimmed down word count, Q&A format, and visualfirst approach – better for consuming on the go, or preferably, outdoors.
Seven Takeaways from Warsh Confirmation Hearing
Kevin Warsh's bid to become the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unfolded amid sharp political tension, legal uncertainty, and pointed questions about his independence from President Trunp. During a combative Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh sought to reassure lawmakers that he would not allow political pressure to dictate monetary policy, even as unresolved Justice Department investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell threatens to delay his confirmation and underscores broader concerns about the politicization of the central bank.
Building Runways for Planes That May Not Return
During and after World War II, Allied forces established airbases across remote Pacific Islands, bringing with them food, medicine, tools, and machinery that the indigenous people had never encountered before.
JPMorgan Readies Fresh Private Credit Push After Needling Market
After years weighing how to dive deeper into private credit, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s $4.3 trillion asset manager is committing to a strategy that will plow tens of billions of dollars into loans sourced by the firm’s commercial bankers.
Are Treasuries Losing Their Luster?
Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy have moved back into the investment spotlight. Over the past week, both multilateral institutions and prominent policymakers have raised warnings about the potential implications of America’s expanding debt burden for Treasury markets.
High Yield Munis Useful for Diversification, Extra Income
When advisors and investors hear the terms “high yield” or “junk” as it relates to bonds, they understandably have some apprehension. After all, junk bonds carry elevated credit risk relative to their investment-grade peers. Hence the higher yields, which act as added compensation for the extra risk.
Muni Monthly: March 2026
Fixed-income market sentiment was dominated by geopolitical headlines, particularly the conflict in the Middle East following disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices, which contributed to renewed inflation concerns.
Interest Rates, Inflation, and Growth
The U.S. market story this year has been a tug-of-war between sticky inflation, slower growth, and resilient risk appetite. For fixed-income investors, that mix has produced more narrative movement than the 10-year Treasury itself.
Vanguard Scoops Up Treasuries as Iran Conflict Lifts Yields
Vanguard is boosting its holdings of Treasuries, taking advantage of higher yields following the Middle East conflict to lock in rates and hedge against the risks of a potential growth slowdown.
Rethinking Fixed Income Allocation in a Multi‑Polar World
LPL Research examines the fixed income space as global bonds broaden yields and reduce U.S. concentration, offering diversified income and resilience via non‑U.S. developed and emerging markets.
Economy and Markets Likely to Prove Resilient
While Russ acknowledges that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has contributed near-term volatility, he also notes that these rising tensions are occurring against the backdrop of a solid U.S. economy.
Resilience Meets Overbought Readings
Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Tactical Positioning Update: From Preparation to Action
Over the past year, LPL Research’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) has emphasized that tactical investing does not require constant activity. Instead, it requires preparation, patience, and the discipline to act only when the expected benefit of a change clearly outweighs the risks.
Hedged Equity vs. Bonds: Seeking A More Reliable Diversifier for Modern Portfolios
“Diversification” has been the driving principle of investing and risk management for generations. But what does it mean to be “diversified?”
Iran, Inflation & Interest Rates
Rising oil prices and the historically inflationary aspects of war have changed expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy and have pulled Treasury yields higher.
Best Performing Sector During the Iran Conflict May Surprise You
In what should be a surprise to no one, energy has been one of the better performing sectors since the joint U.S.-Israel airstrikes on military targets in Iran on February 27, although it has given up some ground since a two-week cease fire was announced last week.
Q2 Strategic Income Outlook: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Despite a confluence of economic shocks in the first quarter, markets have held up remarkably well, but cracks appear to be forming beneath the surface.
The Economy Takes Multiple Shocks in Stride
Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement.
Oil Supply Shocks Don’t Age Well
The Middle East ceasefire sparked a relief rally last week as markets dialed back the risk of a deep, drawn‑out oil supply shock. Stocks have already erased much of the post-conflict drop. Bonds haven’t gotten the memo: Yields are still elevated, keeping a bit of extra term premium on the table.
ETF Roundup: 3 March ETF Launches Target Concentration Risk
New ETF launches address concentration and liquidity risks exposed by volatile markets through active and passive strategies.
Markets During (and After) Wartime
A ceasefire in the Middle East is the latest twist for investors who have grown increasingly reactive to each new headline. Volatility has surged: prior to the ceasefire, the VIX had roughly doubled this year and averaged 25 in March—about 67% above year-end levels—underscoring just how uncertain the path forward has been.
What’s Going on in Private Credit?
The general field called “credit” has seen massive innovation over the course of my career. An Oaktree colleague asked me about the developments that brought the credit sector to where it is today. I came up with the following list.
How Advisors Are Rewiring Fixed Income Portfolios
The traditional 60/40 portfolio is undergoing a structural renovation, but the fixed income sleeve is proving difficult to stabilize.
A Cycle of Reset
Private markets benefited enormously from the post-Great Financial Crisis era of ultralow interest rates that stretched through much of the 2010s and into the early 2020s. Amid regulatory change and muted returns in traditional fixed income during this time, investors were increasingly pushed into alternative areas of capital markets in search of yield.
Investing Through Crosscurrents
The first quarter of the year has offered an early reminder that markets rarely move in straight lines. After the extraordinary enthusiasm that carried investors through 2025, much of it centered on the promise of artificial intelligence, the new year has quickly reintroduced elements of uncertainty.