Every year in early July, we update our interactive Periodic Table of Commodities Returns to reflect the performance of raw materials in the first six months of the year. Maybe I’m biased, but I believe it’s one of the clearest snapshots of the commodities landscape you’ll find anywhere.
The AI capex risk profile has gotten sharper since then, and the argument needs tightening in a few places. The bull case and the tail risk are now the same buildout, but they are running in different directions.
This week a number of articles caught my attention. The only thing that ties them together is their impact on the US and global economy. Economic anomalies: things we were not looking for but show up and force us to pay attention. Today in the summer heat, let’s take a look at a few of them.
Markets enter the second half of 2026 facing a familiar wall of worry—geopolitical conflict, oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and questions around the durability of an AI-led equity rally. Yet the economic backdrop still looks resilient: growth remains solid, inflation has moderated, unemployment is reasonable, and market leadership appears to be broadening.
Russell Investments is getting new owners. An investor consortium led by B Capital, a global multi-stage investment firm, has agreed to acquire the asset manager from TA Associates and Reverence Capital Partners. The group also includes the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), according to a Thursday press release.
If there's one thing you should take away from it, it's this: these six measures rarely move together. When they have, twice in 250 years, the country entered a period of real upheaval. Right now, they're moving together again.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama pulled a genuine surprise on Friday when she announced toward the end of a regularly scheduled press conference that the government would pursue policies to encourage its massive pension funds to invest more at home. Details were sparse, and the yen wasn’t mentioned directly.
The action in Emerging Markets ETFs this year has been really interesting to watch. From record-breaking asset flows to impressive results, albeit massively dispersed, this category of funds has had quite a ride so far in 2026. What comes next could be equally interesting.
The articles that dominated the views in June were very much focused on the realities of investing, addressing everything from how inflation can affect your returns to incorporating AI into retirement evaluations.
June's employment report showed that 17.6% of total employed workers were part time and 82.4% of total employed workers were full-time.
In the week ending July 4th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 218,000.
Almost two decades ago, when trillions of dollars in private housing debt proved unsustainable, governments had to step in to prevent the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression from eclipsing it.
It used to be a considered something of a tawdry question, although it could be flattering as well: “What’s your number?” Nowadays, your inquisitor is probably asking about retirement — as in, how much you think you need to retire. And, as it often was before, it’s the wrong question.
ClearBridge Investments: Although markets often pause to digest after large gains, history suggests these episodes usually prove fleeting, meaning major indexes could move higher in the second half of 2026.
Congress is in recess from June 30 through July 13 for the annual July 4 break, so it's relatively quiet in the nation's capital. But there is still plenty worth paying attention to.
Widowhood does not happen on paper. It happens in the middle of grief, changing income, tax questions, family expectations, housing decisions, administrative demands, and a profound shift in identity. The math may still work, but the human operating system has changed. And that is why advisors need to stress test — not only for portfolio survival, but for survivor usability.
After years of working with advisors and studying client behavior, the reasons clients leave come down to three core patterns. They are predictable. They are preventable. And they almost always trace back to a conversation that never happened in the first meeting.
I have spent the better part of my career watching how organizations manage access to sensitive data — who has it, who should have it, and how long it takes anyone to notice when those two things stop matching. In financial services, that gap tends to be measured in months.
Rising prices increase the value of collateral in every margin account, which automatically increases how much each investor can borrow under Reg T. Debt rises BECAUSE the market rose, not the reverse. That single fact is what breaks the ratios we’re about to examine, and it lies at the core of why margin debt risk is so often misjudged.
AI may reshape the labor market in ways that are difficult to predict, and it won’t be the first time this has happened. In the short term, the labor market appears to have stabilized and there are some early signs of acceleration.
After losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in less than two months, Nvidia Corp.’s stock is the cheapest it’s been since before the AI boom kicked off and sent the shares into the stratosphere.
Steven Pinker's latest book digs into why the knowledge we hold in common matters and how it helps society operate more smoothly.
The word fiduciary no longer answers the only question that matters: Whether the advice you are given is shaped by what the advisor earns from giving it. Many advisors will tell you, accurately, that they are fiduciaries, and many will say they have no conflicts without disclosing the ones they hold.
Private equity may be our No. 1 economic boogeyman. It is blamed for rising real estate prices, poor medical care, and ruining many of the businesses we used to love.
Global equities rebounded in the second quarter as confidence in the AI investment cycle strengthened. As the third quarter begins, we believe markets have become priced for a smooth and profitable AI build-out, leaving little margin for error. June’s sharp sell-off in the Magnificent Seven stocks underscored how quickly sentiment can shift when crowded AI trades are priced for near-flawless execution.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The June employment report’s headline readout was softer than expected, but the details reinforce my view that the U.S. economy remains on a stable footing. Headline payroll growth disappointed, yet the previous two months—which had surprised to the upside—were revised lower, bringing hiring back toward a pace that is far more consistent with a mature expansion.
Right now, advisors are facing a massive generation of clients trying to navigate retirement. That’s challenging enough, but with inflation and the cost of living rising, assuaging those clients’ concerns and delivering for them has become much trickier. Income ETFs can help meet those clients’ goals, with new, daily covered call ETFs an appealing option.
Close to 40 years ago, I moved from Canada to the U.S. after acquiring a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors. I’ve built my entire life and career here, and in all that time, I’ve never stopped marveling at my adopted country.
Bypass the headaches of individual closed-end funds. Discover how Invesco's PCEF bundles over 100 CEFs to capture June's debt rallies.
What is remarkable about Livermore is that his rules are still incredibly valuable. The markets he traded in no longer exist. The technology, the communication speeds, and the regulatory framework of his day are unrecognizable compared to today. But the principles and behavioral patterns he identified are as operational in 2026 as they were a hundred years ago.
Personalization is high on the list of improvements because investing is personal. But we need to be careful in delivering personalization and to recognize the important distinctions between risk capacity (the ability to take risk) and risk tolerance (the willingness to take risks).
The most interesting shift in market price action in June was the strong outperformance of value stocks compared to the broad market and tech
A growing share of central bankers argue that artificial intelligence will ultimately push neutral interest rates higher. Intuitively, if AI boosts productivity and lifts long-run growth, then households have less incentive to save, pushing up the real neutral rate.
Six months is enough time for a lot to change. Your income, your expenses, your goals, and even the broader economy may look different than they did at the start of the year. And a plan that made sense in January might not fit the reality you're living in now.
This July, the United States marks its 250th anniversary, and that has many Americans thinking about what independence really means. In many ways, genuine independence is about more than political rights. It’s financial.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its June 17 meeting, but investors were more focused on the future under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whom Trump appointed in May.
Federal estate taxes may not affect most households, but state death taxes can still be significant. Learn key planning considerations and strategies to help preserve wealth.
The dollar holds a central place in global markets due to its role as the world’s reserve currency. Its movements influence cross-asset correlations, shape liquidity conditions, and often offer early indications of shifts in the broader macro regime. In short, it is a critical variable that warrants close attention.
One should always take government data with a grain of salt. But if we aren’t going to reject it outright (if we do, we have nothing at all to go on), we should at least analyze it with a microscope. The headlines touted by your mainstream pundits almost always miss the real story.
At first glance, allocating to emerging markets appears to add diversification to a portfolio. Look more closely, and the reality is more nuanced. In the late 1990s, the MSCI EM index was dominated by materials and telecoms, driven by the growth of mobile telephony and the internet bubble.
Markets weathered turmoil in the first half, helped by solid earnings with signs of broadening beyond a few AI beneficiaries. If the war in Iran eases, oil prices could normalize, reducing inflation pressure. Still, growth, inflation and policy risks may be underestimated.
Global stocks surged during the second quarter as oversold conditions in March and de-escalation in the Middle East created ripe conditions for a rally. In the United States, the large-cap S&P 500 index climbed by 13%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 index increased by nearly 25% (yCharts).
There’s no doubt the most important aspect to the June FOMC meeting was the fact that policymakers kept the Fed funds rate unchanged and removed its prior easing bias. But, this was not just your normal, run-of-the-mill policy gathering. It was Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair and instead of being a ‘rubber stamp’ for rate cuts, as some market observers were opining, the new FOMC leader put his stamp on the Fed in a different way.
U.S. manufacturing expanded for an eleventh straight month in June but the growth eased to its lowest level in three months. The S&P Global PMI fell 1.2 points to 53.9 last month, falling short of the 55.7 forecast.
The firms that operate rigorous vendor evaluation will compound two advantages simultaneously: They buy the right tools now, and their advisors trust them when the next generation of AI arrives. In a decade that will be defined by the industry's capacity to do more with fewer people, that trust is a strategic asset.
A private bond market dating back more than a century is opening a new front in the trillion-dollar AI funding boom, allowing tech borrowers to sell debt directly to deep-pocketed insurance firms.
July is a great time to buy stocks. In fact, it’s been the best month for the S&P 500 Index in the past two decades. Bulls are finding comfort in that history ahead of what stands to be an eventful stretch.
A strong quarter across major indexes. The second quarter is winding down and what a quarter it has been with the S&P 500 up 12.6% quarter to date, while the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 are both up over 20%. Despite some twists and turns, the path of least resistance for stocks broadly remained up and to the right for much of the last three months.
The sharp retreat in oil prices has dramatically altered the market narrative. Just weeks ago, investors feared a renewed inflation shock from the conflict with Iran. Instead, crude has fallen back toward pre-conflict levels, Treasury yields have declined, and markets have begun rotating aggressively away from the large tech hyperscaler, the Magnificent Seven, that dominated recently and toward more cyclical and value-oriented sectors.
For decades, financial advisors have built strong relationships by helping clients manage IRAs, taxable accounts, and rollover assets after they leave an employer. Meanwhile, a significant, often the largest pool, of client wealth has quietly remained out of reach: assets inside workplace retirement plans.
The OBBBA created something the industry rarely gets: a defined planning window without a hard deadline attached. Exemptions are historically high, the law has no sunset, and there's a real body of existing work that needs revisiting. The advisors who treat this as an opportunity, rather than waiting for a client to ask, will drive much stronger outcomes compared to those who don’t.
Even people whose money beliefs and behaviors align more closely are not necessarily an ideal match. Partners whose predominant money scripts fall into the money vigilance category may both track expenses, openly discuss finances, and hold similar values around saving.
Meme mania swept through Wall Street in 2021. Retail investors gathered on social media and coordinated trading strategies to short squeeze high-profile hedge funds.
The money is REAL. The question was never whether it exists. It’s who’s spending it, and what they borrowed to do it. When the wall of cash and the bottom half finally commit to risk at the same moment the Fed turns hawkish, that’s not the start of something. That’s the part of the cycle where the careful investor gets paid to be careful.
Whether you’re a seasoned RIA owner looking to accelerate organic growth or a next-gen Advisor building your practice from the ground up, the same fundamentals apply: say clearly who you help, show up consistently where prospects look, and make sure your online presence tells the right story.
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
Social Security is now just six years away from insolvency, according to the latest annual assessment. Many in Congress might like to keep on ignoring the problem, as they have for years, but this won’t be an option much longer. Senators elected in November will see the system’s trust fund empty during their terms.
Friedman was reasoning from the equation of exchange, MV = PQ. Money times velocity equals prices times real output. It’s an identity, not a theory. Where it gets interesting is when you ask which variable does the work.
As expectations have shifted toward slower growth, higher inflation, and higher rates, investors have rotated back to sectors like large-cap technology and semiconductors, capable of delivering durable earnings in a tougher macro environment.
Circumstances since 2020 have repeatedly demonstrated how adaptable the economy is in the face of new challenges. We see no reason for that resilience to fade in the balance of the year.
I’m hopeful new chair Kevin Warsh will help change the Fed’s inflation-tolerating institutional culture. Early signs look positive. Today we’ll talk about how insidious inflation is and why those who think a little inflation is fine should have their heads examined. It is not fine… for anyone.
Private credit is having a moment in the headlines. Higher interest rates and a pullback in certain types of bank lending have pushed more financing activity into private markets. Investors may be left with a simple question: What exactly is private credit?
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. named Troy Rohrbaugh and Doug Petno co-presidents as the abrupt departure of consumer banking chief Marianne Lake marked another twist in the race to succeed Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon.
Halfway through 2026, this market perspective is harder to write with confidence than most. That’s not a phrase I use lightly. Over four decades of markets, there have been plenty of uncertain moments, but the number of significant, unresolved issues I’m watching right now is unusually high.
What if the debt crisis investors have feared is not still ahead, but already here, unfolding in plain sight? In his June insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, makes the case that the market may already be penalizing U.S. fiscal excess, not through a dramatic collapse, but through a slow burn with real consequences for investors and the broader economy.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
Market professionals already on edge about the staying power of soaring artificial intelligence stocks are starting to grapple with another risk: public anger toward the technology.
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.
Total-portfolio thinking is gaining momentum across institutional investing, with investors looking to adopt portfolio-wide approaches that integrate risk, liquidity, and capital allocation decisions. As institutions manage broader opportunity sets and place greater emphasis on portfolio integration, total-portfolio thinking is increasingly influencing how they set objectives, allocate capital, implement strategies, and govern portfolios.
The most important development this week was not the Federal Reserve meeting itself, but the sharp and unexpected decline in oil prices. Just days ago, many market participants expected crude to remain elevated amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Instead, WTI crude briefly traded with a 73 handle, only modestly above its pre-conflict levels and far below the $90-$100 range that many feared.
Alan Greenspan, the titan of global central banking who led the Federal Reserve during decades of prosperity, has died at 100, just when elements of his free-market philosophy are experiencing a renaissance.
U.S. equities posted a modest advance during the holiday-shortened trading week despite a Wednesday sell-off following a more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve meeting under its new chair, Kevin Warsh.
Here’s the setup most investors are underrating right now. Over the next two weeks, the tape will trade on plumbing rather than fundamentals. We just cleared the largest options expiration in history. Quarter-end pension selling comes next, and then July 1 reopens the passive-money firehose into a market that already routes forty cents of every S&P 500 dollar into ten stocks.
No one can guarantee which choices will be best for your financial future. Do your best to make them, not out of anxiety over the broader economy, but in the context of your own family’s needs and finances.
The advisory profession is entering a new era. AI will not replace advisors — but advisors who use AI will replace those who don’t. And the actuarial approach is uniquely well suited to this transition.
The most consequential decisions a founder will face, equity gifting before valuations increase, trust structures timed ahead of a sale, QSBS qualification built while eligibility still exists, all must be decided before liquidity. Once the transaction closes, much of what was available earlier is simply gone.
Discover why DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach is urging a structural defensive rotation into emerging markets and international assets.
You know the term “Money Illusion”: mistakenly believing that today’s dollars have the same purchasing power as the dollars of ten or twenty years ago. As with any illusion, fake replaces real, image supplants fact, and fog obscures truth. We’re here to help you sort it out.
Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman proclaimed a wizard for guiding a then-record US economic expansion, only to see his luster dimmed by the financial crisis that erupted less than two years after he stepped down, has died. He was 100.
Start with the disconnect itself. If you only looked at the Michigan headline, you’d assume the country was in a depression. However, when you look at what people are actually doing, the picture changes completely.
Roth conversions provide tax-free retirement income to hedge against future tax hikes, but they trigger an immediate tax bill. Fortunately, strategic planning can help minimize this upfront cost.
We all know that Congress is never going to allow Social Security not to be paid. This begs a number of questions. Will the shortfall be addressed by tax increases, benefit reductions, increasing the retirement age, changing the inflation measures, means testing or some combination of these and other solutions?
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
In an effort to streamline retirement income planning, MassMutual Strategic Distributors has launched a behavioral framework.
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains why dividend growth investing may be one of the most predictable and dependable strategies for long-term investors, especially those seeking retirement income. While many investors view stocks as risky due to daily price volatility, Chuck argues that focusing solely on stock prices can be misleading. Instead, he emphasizes that the most reliable component of stock ownership is often the growing stream of dividends paid by high-quality companies.
Retirement Income
Lithium Was the Top Performing Commodity in H1
Every year in early July, we update our interactive Periodic Table of Commodities Returns to reflect the performance of raw materials in the first six months of the year. Maybe I’m biased, but I believe it’s one of the clearest snapshots of the commodities landscape you’ll find anywhere.
AI Capex Risk Cuts Both Ways In The American Economy
The AI capex risk profile has gotten sharper since then, and the argument needs tightening in a few places. The bull case and the tail risk are now the same buildout, but they are running in different directions.
Economic Anomalies
This week a number of articles caught my attention. The only thing that ties them together is their impact on the US and global economy. Economic anomalies: things we were not looking for but show up and force us to pay attention. Today in the summer heat, let’s take a look at a few of them.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook: A Soft Landing Meets a Broader Market
Markets enter the second half of 2026 facing a familiar wall of worry—geopolitical conflict, oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and questions around the durability of an AI-led equity rally. Yet the economic backdrop still looks resilient: growth remains solid, inflation has moderated, unemployment is reasonable, and market leadership appears to be broadening.
Russell Investments Gets New Owners as ETFs Gain Steam
Russell Investments is getting new owners. An investor consortium led by B Capital, a global multi-stage investment firm, has agreed to acquire the asset manager from TA Associates and Reverence Capital Partners. The group also includes the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), according to a Thursday press release.
America Turns 250. Yet The Data Isn't Celebrating
If there's one thing you should take away from it, it's this: these six measures rarely move together. When they have, twice in 250 years, the country entered a period of real upheaval. Right now, they're moving together again.
Japan’s Yen Fix Starts With Its Pension Cash Coming Home
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama pulled a genuine surprise on Friday when she announced toward the end of a regularly scheduled press conference that the government would pursue policies to encourage its massive pension funds to invest more at home. Details were sparse, and the yen wasn’t mentioned directly.
AI & “Ex-China” Rewriting the Emerging Markets ETF Playbook
The action in Emerging Markets ETFs this year has been really interesting to watch. From record-breaking asset flows to impressive results, albeit massively dispersed, this category of funds has had quite a ride so far in 2026. What comes next could be equally interesting.
Advisor Perspectives’ Top Articles in June Cover Practical Concerns
The articles that dominated the views in June were very much focused on the realities of investing, addressing everything from how inflation can affect your returns to incorporating AI into retirement evaluations.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: June 2026
June's employment report showed that 17.6% of total employed workers were part time and 82.4% of total employed workers were full-time.
Initial Unemployment Claims Down 2K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending July 4th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 218,000.
Governments Must Fix Their Debt Messes Before It's Too Late
Almost two decades ago, when trillions of dollars in private housing debt proved unsustainable, governments had to step in to prevent the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression from eclipsing it.
Stop Chasing a ‘Magic Number’ for Retirement
It used to be a considered something of a tawdry question, although it could be flattering as well: “What’s your number?” Nowadays, your inquisitor is probably asking about retirement — as in, how much you think you need to retire. And, as it often was before, it’s the wrong question.
The Long View: Not a Straight Line
ClearBridge Investments: Although markets often pause to digest after large gains, history suggests these episodes usually prove fleeting, meaning major indexes could move higher in the second half of 2026.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Congress is in recess from June 30 through July 13 for the annual July 4 break, so it's relatively quiet in the nation's capital. But there is still plenty worth paying attention to.
The Survivor Stress Test: When the Couple’s Retirement Plan Becomes a Widow’s Plan
Widowhood does not happen on paper. It happens in the middle of grief, changing income, tax questions, family expectations, housing decisions, administrative demands, and a profound shift in identity. The math may still work, but the human operating system has changed. And that is why advisors need to stress test — not only for portfolio survival, but for survivor usability.
Inoculate Before They Leave: How a Proactive Strategy Stops Client Attrition
After years of working with advisors and studying client behavior, the reasons clients leave come down to three core patterns. They are predictable. They are preventable. And they almost always trace back to a conversation that never happened in the first meeting.
Independent Advisors Are Usually the Last to Know About a Breach
I have spent the better part of my career watching how organizations manage access to sensitive data — who has it, who should have it, and how long it takes anyone to notice when those two things stop matching. In financial services, that gap tends to be measured in months.
Margin Debt Risk: The Ratios That Mislead Investors
Rising prices increase the value of collateral in every margin account, which automatically increases how much each investor can borrow under Reg T. Debt rises BECAUSE the market rose, not the reverse. That single fact is what breaks the ratios we’re about to examine, and it lies at the core of why margin debt risk is so often misjudged.
Creative Destruction, Momentum, SpaceX
AI may reshape the labor market in ways that are difficult to predict, and it won’t be the first time this has happened. In the short term, the labor market appears to have stabilized and there are some early signs of acceleration.
Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Slide Sends Valuation to Pre-AI Boom Levels
After losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in less than two months, Nvidia Corp.’s stock is the cheapest it’s been since before the AI boom kicked off and sent the shares into the stratosphere.
The Emperor’s No Clothes: Steven Pinker on What We Think That Others Know
Steven Pinker's latest book digs into why the knowledge we hold in common matters and how it helps society operate more smoothly.
Why Asking The Fiduciary Question Is No Longer Enough
The word fiduciary no longer answers the only question that matters: Whether the advice you are given is shaped by what the advisor earns from giving it. Many advisors will tell you, accurately, that they are fiduciaries, and many will say they have no conflicts without disclosing the ones they hold.
Private Equity for Everyone Is Getting Out of Hand
Private equity may be our No. 1 economic boogeyman. It is blamed for rising real estate prices, poor medical care, and ruining many of the businesses we used to love.
AI Enthusiasm Leaves Little Margin for Error
Global equities rebounded in the second quarter as confidence in the AI investment cycle strengthened. As the third quarter begins, we believe markets have become priced for a smooth and profitable AI build-out, leaving little margin for error. June’s sharp sell-off in the Magnificent Seven stocks underscored how quickly sentiment can shift when crowded AI trades are priced for near-flawless execution.
Who’s Right? Two-Year Yields or Two-Year Breakeven Rates?
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Jobs Report Masks a Still-Resilient Economy
The June employment report’s headline readout was softer than expected, but the details reinforce my view that the U.S. economy remains on a stable footing. Headline payroll growth disappointed, yet the previous two months—which had surprised to the upside—were revised lower, bringing hiring back toward a pace that is far more consistent with a mature expansion.
Clients Nearing Retirement? Try This New Flavor of Income ETFs
Right now, advisors are facing a massive generation of clients trying to navigate retirement. That’s challenging enough, but with inflation and the cost of living rising, assuaging those clients’ concerns and delivering for them has become much trickier. Income ETFs can help meet those clients’ goals, with new, daily covered call ETFs an appealing option.
250 Years In, and the Case for America Has Never Been Stronger
Close to 40 years ago, I moved from Canada to the U.S. after acquiring a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors. I’ve built my entire life and career here, and in all that time, I’ve never stopped marveling at my adopted country.
What Drove This Closed-End Fund ETF's Performance In June?
Bypass the headaches of individual closed-end funds. Discover how Invesco's PCEF bundles over 100 CEFs to capture June's debt rallies.
More Market Wisdom From Jesse Livermore
What is remarkable about Livermore is that his rules are still incredibly valuable. The markets he traded in no longer exist. The technology, the communication speeds, and the regulatory framework of his day are unrecognizable compared to today. But the principles and behavioral patterns he identified are as operational in 2026 as they were a hundred years ago.
The Movement to Personalize Retirement Investing for 70 Million People
Personalization is high on the list of improvements because investing is personal. But we need to be careful in delivering personalization and to recognize the important distinctions between risk capacity (the ability to take risk) and risk tolerance (the willingness to take risks).
QuantStreet July 2026 Letter: Sector Rotation
The most interesting shift in market price action in June was the strong outperformance of value stocks compared to the broad market and tech
Does AI Raise or Lower Neutral Rates?
A growing share of central bankers argue that artificial intelligence will ultimately push neutral interest rates higher. Intuitively, if AI boosts productivity and lifts long-run growth, then households have less incentive to save, pushing up the real neutral rate.
Mid-Year Money Check-In: Is Your Plan Still Working?
Six months is enough time for a lot to change. Your income, your expenses, your goals, and even the broader economy may look different than they did at the start of the year. And a plan that made sense in January might not fit the reality you're living in now.
Celebrate Financial Independence Day: What True Freedom Looks Like for High Earners
This July, the United States marks its 250th anniversary, and that has many Americans thinking about what independence really means. In many ways, genuine independence is about more than political rights. It’s financial.
Fed’s Warsh Era Begins with Hawkish Tone
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its June 17 meeting, but investors were more focused on the future under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whom Trump appointed in May.
Planning Considerations for State Death Taxes
Federal estate taxes may not affect most households, but state death taxes can still be significant. Learn key planning considerations and strategies to help preserve wealth.
A Coiled Spring: The Dollar’s Next Move
The dollar holds a central place in global markets due to its role as the world’s reserve currency. Its movements influence cross-asset correlations, shape liquidity conditions, and often offer early indications of shifts in the broader macro regime. In short, it is a critical variable that warrants close attention.
A Deep Dive: Does Government Job Data Reflect Reality?
One should always take government data with a grain of salt. But if we aren’t going to reject it outright (if we do, we have nothing at all to go on), we should at least analyze it with a microscope. The headlines touted by your mainstream pundits almost always miss the real story.
Beneath the Surface: Uncovering True Diversification in Emerging Markets
At first glance, allocating to emerging markets appears to add diversification to a portfolio. Look more closely, and the reality is more nuanced. In the late 1990s, the MSCI EM index was dominated by materials and telecoms, driven by the growth of mobile telephony and the internet bubble.
Multi-Asset Midyear Outlook: Fortitude Amid Disruption
Markets weathered turmoil in the first half, helped by solid earnings with signs of broadening beyond a few AI beneficiaries. If the war in Iran eases, oil prices could normalize, reducing inflation pressure. Still, growth, inflation and policy risks may be underestimated.
Third Quarter Commentary: Tailwinds Return as Energy Prices Ease
Global stocks surged during the second quarter as oversold conditions in March and de-escalation in the Middle East created ripe conditions for a rally. In the United States, the large-cap S&P 500 index climbed by 13%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 index increased by nearly 25% (yCharts).
‘Warshing’ the Balance Sheet
There’s no doubt the most important aspect to the June FOMC meeting was the fact that policymakers kept the Fed funds rate unchanged and removed its prior easing bias. But, this was not just your normal, run-of-the-mill policy gathering. It was Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair and instead of being a ‘rubber stamp’ for rate cuts, as some market observers were opining, the new FOMC leader put his stamp on the Fed in a different way.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Growth Slips to 3-Month Low Despite Expansion
U.S. manufacturing expanded for an eleventh straight month in June but the growth eased to its lowest level in three months. The S&P Global PMI fell 1.2 points to 53.9 last month, falling short of the 55.7 forecast.
AI Washing and the Advisor Shortage: Why Getting Technology Decisions Right Has Never Mattered More
The firms that operate rigorous vendor evaluation will compound two advantages simultaneously: They buy the right tools now, and their advisors trust them when the next generation of AI arrives. In a decade that will be defined by the industry's capacity to do more with fewer people, that trust is a strategic asset.
AI’s Trillion-Dollar Debt Binge Fuels Century-Old Private Market
A private bond market dating back more than a century is opening a new front in the trillion-dollar AI funding boom, allowing tech borrowers to sell debt directly to deep-pocketed insurance firms.
S&P Winning Streak for July at Risk With Volatile End to Month
July is a great time to buy stocks. In fact, it’s been the best month for the S&P 500 Index in the past two decades. Bulls are finding comfort in that history ahead of what stands to be an eventful stretch.
Has Stock Market Exuberance Become Irrational?
A strong quarter across major indexes. The second quarter is winding down and what a quarter it has been with the S&P 500 up 12.6% quarter to date, while the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 are both up over 20%. Despite some twists and turns, the path of least resistance for stocks broadly remained up and to the right for much of the last three months.
Economic Resilience, Fading Inflation Supporting Value Rotation
The sharp retreat in oil prices has dramatically altered the market narrative. Just weeks ago, investors feared a renewed inflation shock from the conflict with Iran. Instead, crude has fallen back toward pre-conflict levels, Treasury yields have declined, and markets have begun rotating aggressively away from the large tech hyperscaler, the Magnificent Seven, that dominated recently and toward more cyclical and value-oriented sectors.
The Overlooked Opportunity Inside Workplace Retirement Plans
For decades, financial advisors have built strong relationships by helping clients manage IRAs, taxable accounts, and rollover assets after they leave an employer. Meanwhile, a significant, often the largest pool, of client wealth has quietly remained out of reach: assets inside workplace retirement plans.
Estate Plans Designed Before OBBBA May Now Be Costing Your Clients Money
The OBBBA created something the industry rarely gets: a defined planning window without a hard deadline attached. Exemptions are historically high, the law has no sunset, and there's a real body of existing work that needs revisiting. The advisors who treat this as an opportunity, rather than waiting for a client to ask, will drive much stronger outcomes compared to those who don’t.
Financial Matchmaking: Why Potential Partners’ Money Beliefs Matter
Even people whose money beliefs and behaviors align more closely are not necessarily an ideal match. Partners whose predominant money scripts fall into the money vigilance category may both track expenses, openly discuss finances, and hold similar values around saving.
An Epic David vs. Goliath Stock Battle Is Underway
Meme mania swept through Wall Street in 2021. Retail investors gathered on social media and coordinated trading strategies to short squeeze high-profile hedge funds.
Record Retail Inflows: Where Is All The Money Coming From?
The money is REAL. The question was never whether it exists. It’s who’s spending it, and what they borrowed to do it. When the wall of cash and the bottom half finally commit to risk at the same moment the Fed turns hawkish, that’s not the start of something. That’s the part of the cycle where the careful investor gets paid to be careful.
Rotation Nation. Large-Cap Growth on Sale.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
What Makes an Advisory Firm Easy to Refer? (And Why Many Fail This Test)
Whether you’re a seasoned RIA owner looking to accelerate organic growth or a next-gen Advisor building your practice from the ground up, the same fundamentals apply: say clearly who you help, show up consistently where prospects look, and make sure your online presence tells the right story.
The Credit Market Lens: What BDC Redemptions and NAV Pressures Mean for Investors
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
Fixing Social Security Is Urgent — and Difficult
Social Security is now just six years away from insolvency, according to the latest annual assessment. Many in Congress might like to keep on ignoring the problem, as they have for years, but this won’t be an option much longer. Senators elected in November will see the system’s trust fund empty during their terms.
Friedman Was Right, Just Mostly Misquoted.
Friedman was reasoning from the equation of exchange, MV = PQ. Money times velocity equals prices times real output. It’s an identity, not a theory. Where it gets interesting is when you ask which variable does the work.
Tech Rally Grounded in Fundamentals
As expectations have shifted toward slower growth, higher inflation, and higher rates, investors have rotated back to sectors like large-cap technology and semiconductors, capable of delivering durable earnings in a tougher macro environment.
Mid-Year Themes
Circumstances since 2020 have repeatedly demonstrated how adaptable the economy is in the face of new challenges. We see no reason for that resilience to fade in the balance of the year.
Inflation Sinks Deeper
I’m hopeful new chair Kevin Warsh will help change the Fed’s inflation-tolerating institutional culture. Early signs look positive. Today we’ll talk about how insidious inflation is and why those who think a little inflation is fine should have their heads examined. It is not fine… for anyone.
Private Credit, Explained
Private credit is having a moment in the headlines. Higher interest rates and a pullback in certain types of bank lending have pushed more financing activity into private markets. Investors may be left with a simple question: What exactly is private credit?
Market Broadening, AI, and the Case for Diversification
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
JPMorgan’s Lake Exits, Setting Up New Race to Succeed Dimon
JPMorgan Chase & Co. named Troy Rohrbaugh and Doug Petno co-presidents as the abrupt departure of consumer banking chief Marianne Lake marked another twist in the race to succeed Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon.
More Moving Parts Than Usual: A Mid-2026 Market Perspective
Halfway through 2026, this market perspective is harder to write with confidence than most. That’s not a phrase I use lightly. Over four decades of markets, there have been plenty of uncertain moments, but the number of significant, unresolved issues I’m watching right now is unusually high.
Could the U.S. Be the Frog in the Pot?
What if the debt crisis investors have feared is not still ahead, but already here, unfolding in plain sight? In his June insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, makes the case that the market may already be penalizing U.S. fiscal excess, not through a dramatic collapse, but through a slow burn with real consequences for investors and the broader economy.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
AI Backlash Is the Risk Wall Street Fears Can Stop Tech Stocks
Market professionals already on edge about the staying power of soaring artificial intelligence stocks are starting to grapple with another risk: public anger toward the technology.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.2% in May
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.
The Rise of Total Portfolio Investing
Total-portfolio thinking is gaining momentum across institutional investing, with investors looking to adopt portfolio-wide approaches that integrate risk, liquidity, and capital allocation decisions. As institutions manage broader opportunity sets and place greater emphasis on portfolio integration, total-portfolio thinking is increasingly influencing how they set objectives, allocate capital, implement strategies, and govern portfolios.
Disinflation Trend Keeps Rate Hikes Unlikely
The most important development this week was not the Federal Reserve meeting itself, but the sharp and unexpected decline in oil prices. Just days ago, many market participants expected crude to remain elevated amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Instead, WTI crude briefly traded with a 73 handle, only modestly above its pre-conflict levels and far below the $90-$100 range that many feared.
Greenspan’s Stumbles Hold Lessons for Warsh’s Fed
Alan Greenspan, the titan of global central banking who led the Federal Reserve during decades of prosperity, has died at 100, just when elements of his free-market philosophy are experiencing a renaissance.
Fed Signals Keep Rate Risks in Focus
U.S. equities posted a modest advance during the holiday-shortened trading week despite a Wednesday sell-off following a more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve meeting under its new chair, Kevin Warsh.
When Flows Meet a Hawkish Fed
Here’s the setup most investors are underrating right now. Over the next two weeks, the tape will trade on plumbing rather than fundamentals. We just cleared the largest options expiration in history. Quarter-end pension selling comes next, and then July 1 reopens the passive-money firehose into a market that already routes forty cents of every S&P 500 dollar into ten stocks.
Inflation, Interest Rates, the Fed, & Your Family Budget
No one can guarantee which choices will be best for your financial future. Do your best to make them, not out of anxiety over the broader economy, but in the context of your own family’s needs and finances.
Why It’s Time for Advisors to Add the Actuarial Approach — & Copilot — to Their Retirement Toolkit
The advisory profession is entering a new era. AI will not replace advisors — but advisors who use AI will replace those who don’t. And the actuarial approach is uniquely well suited to this transition.
When Should a Founder Hire a Wealth Advisor? A Guide for Entrepreneurs
The most consequential decisions a founder will face, equity gifting before valuations increase, trust structures timed ahead of a sale, QSBS qualification built while eligibility still exists, all must be decided before liquidity. Once the transaction closes, much of what was available earlier is simply gone.
Meet the New Boss. Different from the Old Boss.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Why the Bond King is Betting on Hikes, Hype & Global Rotation
Discover why DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach is urging a structural defensive rotation into emerging markets and international assets.
Money Illusion — A User’s Manual
You know the term “Money Illusion”: mistakenly believing that today’s dollars have the same purchasing power as the dollars of ten or twenty years ago. As with any illusion, fake replaces real, image supplants fact, and fog obscures truth. We’re here to help you sort it out.
Alan Greenspan, Who Led Fed During Boom Before 2008 Bust, Dies at 100
Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman proclaimed a wizard for guiding a then-record US economic expansion, only to see his luster dimmed by the financial crisis that erupted less than two years after he stepped down, has died. He was 100.
The Consumer Sentiment Disconnect From Economic Reality
Start with the disconnect itself. If you only looked at the Michigan headline, you’d assume the country was in a depression. However, when you look at what people are actually doing, the picture changes completely.
Three Ways to Offset Income From a Roth Conversion
Roth conversions provide tax-free retirement income to hedge against future tax hikes, but they trigger an immediate tax bill. Fortunately, strategic planning can help minimize this upfront cost.
Social Insecurity, Surprise Edition
We all know that Congress is never going to allow Social Security not to be paid. This begs a number of questions. Will the shortfall be addressed by tax increases, benefit reductions, increasing the retirement age, changing the inflation measures, means testing or some combination of these and other solutions?
EM Debt—What Reserve Managers Should Keep in Mind
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
MassMutual on Strategies for Maximizing Retirement Income
In an effort to streamline retirement income planning, MassMutual Strategic Distributors has launched a behavioral framework.
Private Markets in Retirement Plans: Unlocking Opportunities
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
The Closest Thing to Guaranteed investing Success
In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains why dividend growth investing may be one of the most predictable and dependable strategies for long-term investors, especially those seeking retirement income. While many investors view stocks as risky due to daily price volatility, Chuck argues that focusing solely on stock prices can be misleading. Instead, he emphasizes that the most reliable component of stock ownership is often the growing stream of dividends paid by high-quality companies.