Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

4 Floating-Rate ETFs That Should Top Your List

Fixed income investors continue to grapple with an uncertain macro environment, dominated by higher-for-longer interest rates and a new-look U.S. Federal Reserve, in which rate hikes may be forthcoming. Rather than make a directional bet on interest rates to combat duration risk, consider floating-rate ETFs, a compelling option.

Lithium Was the Top Performing Commodity in H1

Every year in early July, we update our interactive Periodic Table of Commodities Returns to reflect the performance of raw materials in the first six months of the year. Maybe I’m biased, but I believe it’s one of the clearest snapshots of the commodities landscape you’ll find anywhere.

Tariff Pass-Through Is Not Over

While tariff uncertainty hasn’t completely disappeared, it has diminished, and firms are feeling less uncertain about the future.

A Higher Bar for Earnings Season

The first wave of upgrades came after the AI hyperscalers reported, by and large, strong earnings. But most of the improvement has stemmed from the rest of the non-financials index, with analysts quadrupling their one-year aggregate EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) growth expectations, from 5% at the end of January to more than 20% as of 30 June.

Is US Democracy at Risk?

As we move toward the mid-term elections, many are making the argument that “democracy is at risk.” We get politicians making this argument, but when supposedly sober political and economic analysts start to make it, we do get worried.

Keep It Short & Sweet With MINT

The Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates in the second half of 2026 appear very much up in the air. That said, advisors and fixed income investors may want to renew their focus on short duration bonds and related ETFs.

Q2 2026 Earnings Preview: Navigating High Expectations, Tariff Rebates, and War Uncertainties

What makes this earnings setup truly unique is the behavior of Wall Street analysts over the last 90 days. Because corporate guidance tends to be conservative, analysts historically cut estimates ahead of time.

AI Capex Risk Cuts Both Ways In The American Economy

The AI capex risk profile has gotten sharper since then, and the argument needs tightening in a few places. The bull case and the tail risk are now the same buildout, but they are running in different directions.

Economic Anomalies

This week a number of articles caught my attention. The only thing that ties them together is their impact on the US and global economy. Economic anomalies: things we were not looking for but show up and force us to pay attention. Today in the summer heat, let’s take a look at a few of them.

Tax-Loss Harvesting: How Often Should It Happen?

For investors using direct-indexed equity strategies, tax-loss harvesting becomes a major focus, as it may help improve after-tax returns—but we think the calendar for tax-loss selling can make a big difference. Weekly tax-loss harvesting, in our view, offers the potential for more efficient tax-loss harvesting and more effective index tracking in turbulent markets.

Four Themes to Watch as Earnings Season Shifts into Focus

Despite geopolitical headwinds, the broader macro backdrop remained constructive in the first half of the year. Economic growth proved resilient, consumers kept spending and the S&P 500 gained 10%. That favorable mix drove strong earnings growth, with S&P 500 earnings rising 27% year over year in 1Q26, led by the tech sector.

2026 Mid-Year Outlook: A Soft Landing Meets a Broader Market

Markets enter the second half of 2026 facing a familiar wall of worry—geopolitical conflict, oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and questions around the durability of an AI-led equity rally. Yet the economic backdrop still looks resilient: growth remains solid, inflation has moderated, unemployment is reasonable, and market leadership appears to be broadening.

Is the Credit Market Unprepared for the Level of Tech Supply?

Fixed income experts James Donahue, John Lloyd and Mike Talaga revisit the levels of supply related to the AI buildout and explain why they remain cautious towards investment grade tech issuance.

Not Just Tech: Invest in Innovation With Healthcare

Traditionally speaking, folks that have looked to tap into innovation in the AI space have done so through tech exposure, particularly with mega-cap names. This is not a surprise, considering the interplay between these companies and AI innovation. However, healthcare also has many opportunities for innovation.

Top 10 Charts of 2026: Mid-Year Review

Discover the top 10 most-read charts from the first half of 2026, covering historic market valuations, record margin debt, recession indicators, and global index performance.