Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

Market Focus Shifts From Earnings to Macro Catalysts

Geopolitical risks are still lingering in the background, but the story lately has been all about earnings. A strong 1Q26 season, paired with a steady drumbeat of upbeat management commentary, has helped push the S&P 500 to 21 record highs this year.

Investment Discipline Amid the AI Infrastructure Boom

Businesses are racing to build the physical infrastructure that makes AI usable at scale – data centers, the graphics processing unit (GPU) hardware stack, power, and cooling.

Trying Tango

Economies around the world aren’t just reliant on AI investments for growth. The appreciation of AI stocks has supported spending, which is following “K-shaped” patterns. A significant correction to the valuations of tech leaders would therefore be even more likely to result in recession.

Earnings and Semiconductors Power Markets

Equities extend gains as earnings and semiconductors lead markets higher. Consumer confidence remains subdued despite economic resilience. Inflation is easing gradually but remains above the Fed’s targey.

Supply Shocks and AI-Related Demand Blur Inflation Signals for the Fed

Recent Federal Reserve communications have turned more hawkish, reflecting concern that persistent supply-driven price pressures could begin to feed into inflation expectations. But unlike in prior cycles, today’s environment is not defined by supply shocks alone.

Where Did all the Teen Summer Jobs Go?

Ahead of next week’s May employment report, the summer jobs market is coming into focus as teenagers and students finish the school year. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, teen hiring from May through July is expected to total just 790,000 jobs this summer, down slightly from 801,000 last summer.

Why Value Investing is the Safest Way to Build Wealth (Part 1)

In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains the true meaning of value investing and why valuation is one of the most important concepts investors can understand. - Why Value Investing is the Safest Way to Build Wealth. Chuck argues that value investing is not simply about buying “cheap stocks,” but about making prudent, rational investments that control risk while allowing investors to fully participate in a company’s long-term growth.

How Investors Can Navigate the Maze

Artificial intelligence (AI) poses many ethical issues that may translate into risks for consumers, companies and investors. AI regulation, which is developing unevenly across jurisdictions, adds to the uncertainty. The key for investors, in our view, is to focus on transparency and explainability.

Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Up, Confidence Down

Last week’s data tracked a shifting economic trajectory over the last several months. While the latest reading on first-quarter GDP confirms the economy started the year with steady growth, subsequent inflation metrics moved higher and ultimately weighed on consumer confidence.

Sound Money: The Enemy of Big Government and a Friend to Liberty

The reality is, the American people wouldn’t accept the level of taxation necessary to maintain the warfare/welfare state. There would be a tax revolt. So, the government resorts to a less obvious tax.

The Retirement Hack Hiding Inside Most DC Plans

Many debates in defined contribution (DC) circles focus on fees, new asset classes, and ever more complex solutions. But the biggest improvement available to plan participants may come from something far simpler: how their fixed income is managed.

U.S. Equities Extend Winning Streak on Strong Earnings and Iran Peace Deal Hopes

U.S. equities moved higher last week, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.9 percent – its eighth consecutive weekly gain and the longest such streak since 2023. The Russell 2000 fared even better, rising 2.7 percent.

Technical Take on the Record-High Rally

Risk appetite remains firmly intact as optimism surrounding a potential resolution to the war with Iran continues to improve investor sentiment. The S&P 500 has now advanced for eight consecutive weeks, with price action remaining remarkably resilient throughout the recovery.

Mega IPOs and Institutional Portfolio Risk

The next IPO wave may create a different kind of portfolio challenge for institutions already holding private stakes in companies like SpaceX and OpenAI.

Guided by Fundamentals: Navigating Emerging Markets with Value

As globalization gives way to reshoring and resurgent resource nationalism, emerging markets may offer fresh alpha opportunities through their ability to supply the raw materials required to fuel the AI boom.