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Bond Yields Around a First Rate Hike
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial, 8/29/14
Historically, bond yields have begun to move more forcefully four to six months ahead of a first rate hike from the Fed. We believe the rise in interest rates may begin sooner this cycle due to lower yields and more expensive valuations. We favor capitalizing on year-to-date bond strength and recommend a defensive posture consisting of short to intermediate bonds.

Data Dilemma: When Final Isn't Final
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 8/28/14
Revisions to GDP dont often change the overall picture of the health, or lack thereof, of the economy. Despite cutbacks to congressional funding of data collection at the federal level in recent years, the GDP data are a lot more accurate than they used to be. About every five years, the BEA does a comprehensive revision to GDP, and at that point, GDP for any specific quarter is just about as final as it will get, as the BEA has 98% of the data it needs to calculate GDP.

Reconnected?
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 8/6/14
With the release of the GDP figures for the second quarter of 2014 (along with revisions to the data back to 1999), the disconnect appears to be fading. The data released so far for the third quarter suggest that the underlying economy had decent momentum as the third quarter began. The data continue to suggest that the U.S. economy is poised to post growth in the second half of 2014 above the long-term run rate of the economy. With plenty of slack still in the labor market, in our view, the Fed is not likely to begin raising rates until late 2015, or even early 2016.

Stock Market Valuations Suggest That This Bull Market Still Has Teeth
by Team of LPL Financial, 8/5/14
Losing under 3% in a week seems a minor concern given historical market ups and downs; nevertheless, investors may begin to wonder if stock market valuations are signaling a decline. Since the end of the last significant sell-off for stocks, the market has been in a pretty consistent upward trend. Valuation is a poor market-timing indicator; while valuation should always be considered, it is a blunt tool that should be taken into broader context.

Calling the Feds Bluff
by Anthon Valeri of LPL Financial, 7/31/14
Futures continue to indicate the bond market believes the Fed does not have an ace up its sleeve and that ultimately they will not raise rates as high as they project. A host of top-tier economic data may influence bonds more this week given the absence of new forecasts and a press conference following this weeks Fed meeting.

LPL Financial Research Mid-Year Outlook 2014: Investors Almanac Field Notes
by Jeff Kleintop of LPL Financial, 7/1/14
At this years halfway point, we are pleased to offer the LPL Financial Research Mid-Year Outlook 2014: Investors Almanac Field Notes containing key observations and updates to our outlook for 2014. Similar to a farming almanac, our Investors Almanac is a publication containing a guide to patterns, tendencies, and seasonal observations important to growing. The goal of farming is not merely to grow crops, but to sustain living thingsinvesting shares the same goal.

Behind the Curve?
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial, 6/26/14
Despite the Fed labeling the recent inflation increase as noise, longer-term bond yields rose, inflation expectations increased, and the yield curve steepened -- all signs of the bond market pricing in inflation risks. As the low inflation pillar of year-to-date bond strength fades, it may be one more reason to be cautious in the bond market.

World Cup and World CPI Are Heating Up, Risking Mistakes by Key Players
by Jeffrey Kleintop of LPL Financial, 6/25/14
Just as the World Cup has been heating up, increasing the risk of player mistakes, the world consumer price index (CPI) has also been heating up, complicating the task for policymakers at the worlds central banks and increasing the risk of mistakes that could have market implications.
Results 351–358 of 358 found.