In the end, it does not matter if you are “bullish” or “bearish.” However, what is grossly important in achieving long-term investment success is not necessarily being “right” during the first half of the cycle, but by not being “wrong” during the second half.
While consensus remains cautious, there is a case, however tenuous, for economic reacceleration. This isn’t about ignoring risks. It’s about acknowledging that conditions aligning could drive a shift from stagnation to renewed growth.
The math on forward return expectations, given current valuation levels, does not hold up. The assumption that valuations can fall without the price of the markets being negatively impacted is also grossly flawed.
I recently penned an article on “Money Supply Growth,” which elicited a very thoughtful response from Garrett Baldwin via Substack. He argued that labeling Federal Reserve operations as “money printing” is not rhetoric, but rather a reality. He points to Ben Bernanke’s 2010 interview, where Bernanke described how the Fed marks up digital accounts.
Classical conditioning teaches us a valuable lesson regarding the current investor dilemma. Pavlov’s research discovered a basic psychological rule: when a neutral stimulus is repeatedly paired with a reward‑stimulus, eventually it will trigger the same response even when the reward is absent.
Gold is not immune to market cycles. It’s a volatile asset driven by shifting narratives and capital flows. If you’re buying gold today, understand what’s supporting the price, and what could shake that support loose. Treat gold as a hedge, not a core growth asset.
We live in what Brett Arends claimed as“The Dumbest Stock Market In History,” but I believe it is potentially the most dangerous era. That phrase is not hyperbole as it reflects structural distortion, extreme valuations, and an investor base intoxicated by momentum and narrative.
Bold calls to “run to gold, silver, and bitcoin” make for strong headlines, but they oversimplify the reality of modern finance. As we’ve seen, money supply growth is not inherently a sign of debasement but reflects economic expansion. Far from being destructive, government deficits flow directly into private-sector savings and stabilize household balance sheets.
I want to discuss a different approach to portfolio management with you today. Rather, how to think like a “bear,” so you see the risks of the speculative bull run. However, to act like a “bull” to capture the gains while available. But that is a difficult skill to master.
Every market cycle eventually changes investor psychology to believe risk has been conquered.
If you want to understand where we are in the cycle, skip the noise and follow profits. Corporate profits are the lifeblood of investment, hiring, and market returns.
Following Friday’s selloff amid the resurgence of tariff threats on China, I asked ChatGPT a simple question: ”How to Stay Calm In The Stock Market?” In this week’s post, I thought it would be helpful to review ChatGPT’s advice and discuss it in more detail.
When bear market losses occur, headlines talk in percentages: “The market dropped 20 %.” Investors nod. A 20 % decline sounds manageable, historical, and expected.
Over the past three years, the economic conversation has been a “promised recession.” If you read the headlines, tracked economist surveys, or even listened to Wall Street strategists, you would have assumed a downturn was imminent. And yet, here we are, late into 2025, and the U.S. economy is still standing.
While it may seem that way at extremes, momentum tends to exhaust, and reversals or corrections become more probable. The RSI gives us a real-time gauge of when a trend may be vulnerable to a pullback or turn.
While the market is betting on an economic revival to support current valuation levels, the real economy is suggesting things are slowing down. Notably, the evidence isn’t coming from obscure corners. It’s showing up in the indicators designed to give us a heads-up before a storm arrives.
The buildout of data centers and the power grid may offer the best opportunity to generate sustained growth. The scale of investment is large enough to matter, the economic multipliers are high, and the timeline aligns with when fiscal pressure will peak.
To understand where the market might go, you need to weigh both the bull case and bear case in light of what is actually priced and what risks remain unacknowledged. The data support the bull momentum case, but many components are already baked into current prices.
We will examine five major investment strategies: value, growth, momentum, dividend, and index investing. Each comes with strengths and weaknesses. More importantly, each offers lessons from history’s greatest investors, including Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett.
Despite the slowdown, the Federal Reserve remains hesitant. Chair Powell noted softening labor conditions at Jackson Hole and suggested the door is open to rate cuts. But no concrete shift in policy has occurred.
Surface-level diversification is no longer enough in a market increasingly driven by passive flows and dominated by a few mega-cap names. Owning multiple funds or asset classes does not guarantee protection if the underlying exposures overlap. Investors must go deeper and look beyond labels and into the actual drivers of risk and return.
The failures aren’t isolated miscalculations but the predictable result of a flawed framework that policymakers have clung to for decades. Keynesian economics didn’t just “get it wrong” in 2025, but has repeatedly failed to deliver on its promises for over forty years. And the consequences are becoming impossible to ignore.
Here is the hard truth you must learn. Your real edge comes from limiting damage when you’re wrong and maximizing gains when you’re right, which is the very foundation of any risk plan. You will lose. You must build your system around that fact.
Energy prices indicate economic strength, or, in this case, weakness. If the global economy grew strongly, the need for oil consumption would rise, absorbing the current production levels, causing energy prices to rise.
“Buy Every Dip” has lately been the “Siren’s Song” for this market. Such is seen in the flows into ETFs over the course of this year. Retail investors treat pullbacks as temporary noise, and their behavior borders on mechanical. Every sell-off is seen as an opportunity, not a warning.
The latest economic data suggests the US economy is decelerating. That means growth is slowing, jobs are shrinking, and households are spending less.
There is little doubt that excess bullishness has invaded the general market psyche. Just a couple of months following the market decline in March and April, where sentiment turned exceedingly bearish, the S&P 500 hovers near its highs.
To benefit from a corporate buyback, an individual must sell their shares to the company. Conversely, those holding on to their shares are not compensated.
The meme stock movement is again dominated by speculative retail trading driven by online forums, social media hype, and short-term momentum.
I understand the concerns about rising debt levels. However, the problem of rising debt levels for the U.S. is NOT a default but a continued degradation of economic growth. Let’s start this discussion with a basic fact—without continued increases in debt, there would be very little to no economic growth.
As the turn of the calendar occurred on Friday, the bull streak for the market since the April lows ended. Such was not unexpected, and the correction has been a topic of discussion in our daily market commentary over the last two weeks.
Over the past year, financial headlines continue to flood investors with doomsday predictions about the U.S. dollar. Whether it’s social media influencers waving “dollar collapse” charts or YouTube personalities warning about debasement, the noise has become deafening.
When markets decline—especially after long periods of sustained growth—the familiar advice resurfaces: “Be patient. Stay invested. Ride it out.” The rationale? The market always goes up over time. But there’s a critical flaw in this narrative.
Wall Street has a long history of selling the newest shiny object to Main Street just as the trade begins to sour. If the music stops at this private equity party, you don’t want to be the last one still dancing.
Retail speculation is once again gripping the markets. A recent Wall Street Journal article highlighted how the latest retail gambling vehicle—zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options—has exploded in popularity.
Few are as candid and historically accurate as hedge fund manager Kyle Bass when identifying structural breaks in the global economy. In a recent interview, Bass painted a grim but telling picture of China’s economic condition, warning.
A couple of years ago, I wrote about absolute versus relative returns. Given the latest market run, I am getting a lot of questions about chasing returns, and individuals comparing themselves to the S&P 500 index.
Next week, the Q2-2025 earnings season will begin in earnest as a barrage of S&P 500 companies report, starting with the Wall Street money center banks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Since earnings drive the market by supporting investor expectations, what should investors expect? Let’s dig into the details.
The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.
For sophisticated investors, this technical shift marks a subtle but powerful pivot in monetary mechanics. It could create demand for Treasuries, improve market liquidity, and push yields lower at a time when the economy is slowing.
The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.
The recent decline in the dollar relative to other currencies is well within historical norms. Notably, previous declines were much larger without the “fear-mongering” from the “experts of doom.”
Given the uncertainty of future events, global investors seek a “safe haven” for investment dollars. As such, U.S. Treasury Bonds and the U.S. dollar appreciate given their perceived “financial safety.” Last week, global investors were already starting to make that shift with the dollar rising.
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.
In recent years, “buying the dip“ and more vulgar variations have often been equated to “dumb money” or retail investors, who are presumed to always make a mistake. However, as investors, we need to rethink how we view “buying the dip” because the whole goal of investing is to “buy low and sell high.”
It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings.
Buying stocks is always hard. Particularly during corrections. Or, near market peaks. Or, when stocks are falling. And when they are rising. Oh, buying stocks is also tricky when valuations are high. And when they are low. You get the point.
It doesn’t take much to understand that Ray Dalio, a hedge fund titan, is like every other human being and is prone to error. I will not dismiss Dalio entirely, as his track record of managing money at Bridgewater is nothing to be scoffed at.
Given the uncertainty of what potentially happens next, the recent rally is an excellent opportunity to adjust portfolio risks to navigate the next leg of this market cycle.
