The latest FOMC meeting caused a stock rally as Jerome Powell turned more “dovish” than expected. While Powell did note that progress on inflation has been lackluster, the announcement of the reversal of “Quantitative Tightening” (QT) excited the bulls.
Over the last two weeks, the bullish sentiment index has reversed from extreme greed to fear. The composite net bullish sentiment index, comprised of professional and retail investors, fell from 38.15 to 9.9 in two weeks.
Behavioral traits and cognitive biases are anathemas to portfolio management as they impair our ability to remain emotionally disconnected from our money. As history all too clearly shows, investors always do the “opposite” of what they should when it comes to investing their own money.
Is this just a correction after a strong bullish advance from November, or is the bull market ending?
The latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey was an economic warning that departed widely from more robust governmental reports.
Economic “reflation” is becoming the next bullish narrative as equity valuation increases continue to outpace earnings gains, at least according to Gold Sachs and Tony Pasquariello.
While immigration has positively impacted economic growth and disinflation, this story has a dark side.
In the most recent report from FINRA, margin debt levels have surged as bullish investors leverage their bets in the equity market. The increase in leverage is not surprising, as it represents increased risk-taking by investors in the stock market.
Your mother likely imparted valuable investing lessons you may not have known. With Mother’s Day approaching and bullish market exuberance present, such is an excellent time to revisit the investing lessons she taught me.
During running bull markets, much commentary is written on why this time is different and why investors should not worry about market corrections.
Technical measures and valuations all suggest the market is expensive, overbought, and exuberant. However, none of it seems to matter as investors pile into equities to chase risk assets higher. A recent BofA report shows that the increase in risk appetite has been the largest since March 2021.
One of the most interesting conundrums is the surging wealth gap in America. Despite two of the largest bull markets in history since 1980, most Americans struggle with making ends meet and are unprepared for retirement. Such a reality starkly differs from the belief that rising asset prices benefit the masses.
It is long past the time that we face the fact that “Social Security” is facing a retirement crisis. In June 2022, we touched on this issue, discussing the stark realities confronting Social Security.
With the last half of March upon us, the blackout of stock buybacks threatens to reduce one of the liquidity sources supporting the bullish run this year.
Household equity allocations are again sharply rising, as the “Fear Of Missing Out” or “F.O.M.O.” fuels a near panic mentality to chase markets higher.
Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite.
Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies.
Valuation metrics have little to do with what the market will do over the next few days or months. However, they are essential to future outcomes and shouldn’t be dismissed during the surge in bullish sentiment.
After over two years, retail investors, also known as the “dumb money,” are almost back to breakeven.
I revisited that original post a couple of weeks ago as the market approached its 5000 psychological milestone. Since then, the entire market has surged higher following last week’s earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA).
Recently, retail investors have started chasing small-cap stocks in hopes of both a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and avoiding a recession.
Don’t fear all-time highs in the market. Such is a natural response for investors who are concerned about market risk. However, rather than fearing market exuberance, we must understand what drives it.
Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November.
While the bulls remain entirely in control of the market narrative, divergences and other technical warnings suggest becoming more cautious may be prudent.
The cost of housing remains a hot-button topic with both Millennials and Gen-Z. Plenty of articles and commentaries address the concern of supply and affordability, with the younger generations getting hit the hardest.
Of course, the market peaked in January 2022, just four months later, at 4796.56. Fast forward 2-full years of returning investors to breakeven, and the market is again approaching that magical round number of 5000.
I received an email this past week concerning George Soros’ “Theory Of Reflexivity.” It’s an interesting question, and I have previously written about the “Theory of Reflexivity.” Notably, this theory begins to resurface whenever markets become exuberant.
As the financial markets grind higher, retirement savers have consciously decided to add more to equity risk. Such was the result of a recent Bloomberg survey.
As money market account balances soar, the mainstream media again proclaims, “There is $6 trillion of cash on the sidelines just waiting to come into the market.”
As the stock market hit all-time highs this past week, there remains an interesting disconnect from the more dour economic concerns of the average American. A recent survey by Axios, a left-leaning website that supports the current Administration, addressed this issue.
As we get ready to review the Q4 earnings report, stocks have rallied sharply over the last two months
Economic growth continues to defy expectations of a slowdown and recession due to continued increases in deficit spending.
A stunning post from VisualCapitalist showed a poll of 8550 investors and 2700 advisors and the gap between the two of future portfolio return expectations. The poll was global; however, I will focus on this post’s domestic portfolio return expectations.
A recent warning by YahooFinance warns investors to sell their cash and buy bonds and stocks now as the Fed pauses.
What is the “wealth effect,” and why is it important? It is a great question and reminded me of “A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Colosseum.“
In October, the markets were down 10% from the July high, bond yields were touching 5%, and talk of a coming recession was rampant. What happened?
It’s that time of the year where Wall Street polishes up their crystal balls and pin targets on the S&P index for the upcoming year. As is often the case, while Wall Street is always optimistic, the forecasts prove pretty wrong.
Is a stock market correction coming before the Santa Claus rally at the end of the year?
I previously discussed a slate of recessionary indicators with high correlations to recessionary onsets. However, as we head into 2024, many Wall Street economists predict a “soft landing” or “no recession” outcome for the economy.
As I wrote this blog, the S&P 500 index is up roughly 17% year-to-date. Most likely, your portfolio isn’t. This is a common frustration among many investors in the market this year in particular.
Are you an “investor” or a “speculator?”
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is arguably one of the most important and overlooked economic indicators.
Is the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices rallied sharply following the November FOMC policy meeting.
Despite substantially tighter monetary policy, the strength of jobs and retail sales stumped expectations of a recessionary downturn in 2022.
While often difficult, investing rules can help us maintain our focus and investment discipline in volatile or uncertain markets.
Economists no longer expect a recession. Such was according to a recent WSJ survey of Wall Street economists.
The “pain trade” continues to be higher into year-end.
While the article focuses mainly on the rise in bond yields, it applies to several current market events.
Restrictive monetary conditions, from higher yields and tighter lending conditions, are the Fed’s “Waterloo.”
As the “soft landing” narrative grows, the risk of a “crisis” event in the economy increases. Will the Fed trigger another crisis event? While unknown, the risk seems likely as the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative is compromised by lagging economic data.
