There is a disconnect between the Fed’s message regarding taking a pause in hiking interest rates this year and the market’s expectations of rate cuts.

The Banking emergency arising with mid-sized, regional banks is a direct consequence of policy decisions. Examine the causes of bank failures in 2023 and the potential for larger contagion.

A wage-price spiral isn't imminent in Europe, but inflation may take a while to descend.

Tom Hauser, Co-Head of Corporate Credit, discusses his current views on opportunity in leveraged credit. Economist Paul Dozier updates on the latest economic data.

Portfolio manager John Paul Lech explores the defining changes of the last three years. Here he explains how he is navigating the new era of rising interest rates and financial tightening.

Saving for college can be daunting. Many parents don’t know how prepared they will be for college costs in the future. Parents face the question of how much to save and which funding vehicles to use.

China reported year-over-year inflation last night at just 0.1%, 0.2% lower than expectations. Clearly, China’s reopening is not creating price pressures, which brings the strength of the reopening into question.

The longer-term risks of sticky inflation, monetary policy changes, and slowing economic growth continue to challenge the markets. Within this uncertain backdrop, Franklin Income Investors’ Ed Perks shares his latest outlook and the investment opportunities he sees across fixed income and equities.

The central bank likely won't have enough reason to hike rates again this cycle. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised to see one or two rate cuts later this year.

We are presented with this decision in finance a lot. There is a small probability of something bad happening and a large probability that everything will be fine. What do you do to insure yourself against something bad happening? Because there is no such thing as a free lunch.

U.S. Treasury debt is considered the closest debt in existence to having no default risk. The ongoing game of financial chicken between Congress and the White House puts this assumption in doubt.

This is part of a continuing series of analyze-out-loud videos prepared at the suggestion of subscribers to the FAST Graphs’ YouTube Channel on how to research stocks – and how to know when to buy or sell a stock.

Stock selection in a climate investing strategy takes more than just avoiding companies exposed to global warming risks. The process should intersect with an active search for diverse opportunities among companies helping to fight climate change, but with high-quality business models, too.

Markets want to believe policy interest rates will soon fall—but inflation and growth data tell a very different story, argues Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai.

An allocation to fixed income may help investors navigate a potential recession as well as uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.

Fixed-income markets are likely to be volatile given macro-driven risks and the higher cost of borrowing.

The Cboe's new 1-Day Volatility Index, launched on April 24, and was built to measure the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next day of trading. VIX1D is a response to a surge in the use of extremely short-dated options.

Markets will likely get increasingly unsettled as the X-date approaches without resolution. Congress has about four weeks to hatch a deal. Chief Economist Brian Horrigan looks at five possible scenarios and relates important considerations for each.

Shifts in the labor market due to monetary policy tightening would see lagged effects that may not aid central banks' efforts to materially affect core inflation by year's end.

Lawmakers in Washington set government spending and revenue plans every fiscal year, usually producing a shortfall that many of us know as the federal budget deficit.

After moderate gains in March, markets continued to rally in April. U.S. markets were up by low single digits, while bond markets were moderately positive. International markets were mixed, with developed markets showing modest gains while emerging markets ticked down.

Pay attention to the bond diversification, resiliency quality stocks may offer, and current allocation to cash within portfolios in the wake of Fed action.

The financial media is rife with misinformation on the debt ceiling and the jump in interest rates. However, a history review shows that the “debt-ceiling” issue is not only a non-crisis, but the recent rise in rates is likely an opportunity to buy bonds.

Doug Drabik discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

Economic reports and corporate data last week highlighted the cautious stance of corporations, contrasted against a resilient consumer, who continues to be propped up by strong demand in the labor market and increasing wages.

Watching Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger Saturday in Omaha caused us to think about a very popular 1960s TV show called, “The Dating Game.” Hosted by Jim Lange, the game was played with the host on one side of a wall with a male or female contestant.

ChatGPT is generating excitement about the power of artificial intelligence (AI) to reshape the business. For investment firms, AI can help execute many menial functions to free up analysts for deeper research dives, armed with more information than they could ever process alone.

Financial cracks from rate hikes have led to jitters over commercial real estate. Yet granularity is key. We see opportunities in some U.S. industrial properties.

With regional bank volatility grabbing headlines, CIO Larry Adam looks at what this activity means for the economy and asset classes.

The Fed's tools for managing interest rates are adding to deposit competition.

The 2011 U.S. reality television show Doomsday Preppers showed an uncommon side of life, spotlighting families that prepared to survive extreme, potentially fatal scenarios. Their plans included accumulating a surplus of food, fuel, and other essentials, all of which came at a cost.

Yes, we have banking problems. No, this is not 2008. It’s much more like the 1970s Savings & Loan problems.

If the Fed pauses, will that revive risk assets? Tom Nelson and Miles Sampson of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions weigh in on the investment implications of the latest US central bank actions.

Today’s competitive landscape is creating an interesting opportunity for discussions between money managers and their small business owner clients looking to incorporate more technology-centric investments into their portfolios.

For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Karrie Gordon and Nick Peters-Golden debated the long-term investing case for gold ETFs. Have the yellow metal’s fundamentals fundamentally changed?

Many investors are choosing to access bitcoin and broader crypto themes through traditional ETF wrappers due to their relative simplicity and familiarity.

Taking risks is no longer necessary to make a return on your savings.

Equities rise as jobs surprise the upside. The U.S. jobs market remains resilient as nonfarm payrolls beat expectations in April.

Portfolio Manager John Paul Lech explores the defining changes of the last three years and how they have informed his approach to the years ahead.

A direct repercussion of higher central bank policy rates is on the cost of capital for corporations and other issuers of debt. However, not all issuers feel the impact of higher rates at the same time, and we’re more cautious on asset classes that are experiencing higher interest costs sooner.

Key Takeaways

• Stocks and bonds perform well after the last rate hike
• The bar for cutting rates is higher than it has been in the past
• First-quarter earnings results have been better than feared

If there was a message the Federal Reserve (Fed) wanted to make clear after the end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 3, it was that it reserves the right to remain hawkish.

World economic growth is slowing. That’s so obvious, very few will disagree. I suppose there are people out there predicting imminent 1990s-like expansion, but they are few and far between. If recession begins soon, it will be the most anticipated one in history.

The U.S. regional banking crisis is intensifying as rising interest rates put smaller banks at risk, leading to significant losses in the sector. Amid the turmoil, gold and gold mining stocks may offer investors a potentially safer alternative to manage risk.

Japan’s business and government leaders have undertaken efforts to revitalize the country’s economy. Dina Ting, Franklin Templeton ETFs’ Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, discusses some of these positive developments.

This is part of a continuing series of analyze out loud videos prepared at the suggestion of subscribers to the FAST Graphs’ YouTube Channel on how to research stocks.

Since early March bonds and growth stocks have rallied, and for the first time since 2021 bonds have resumed their role as an equity hedge.

The big picture is that this week’s adjacent decisions by two major central banks point to a near-term divergence in policy paths between the US and Europe: the Fed is on hold and the ECB is still raising rates.

It is not yet clear when or if we’ll have a recession in 2023— but it has certainly been a challenging market environment, and with dislocation comes opportunity.