Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
This morning’s retail sales report is a bit of relief. The economy, as of the end February, is not in free fall as the control group increase of 1.0% offset the same decline in January. Nevertheless, the underlying concerns that emerged over the last few days cannot be ignored.
The economy stands upon the edge of a knife as gold hits new highs. Plus, we review our predictions for gold and silver last year and provide our price predictions for 2025.
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
Markets have been overwhelmed lately by the administration’s fast-paced and, many times, highly uncertain tariff measures.
Banks’ retreat is creating opportunity for investors.
When breakthroughs occur, researchers get the lion’s share of the credit. But they owe a big debt of gratitude to those who collect and organize the data with which insight is manufactured.
Understanding actual inflation – instead of what the media’s narrative tells you it should be – is critical to your investment planning. It is one thing for a pundit to say this or that, but it is another to look at the actual data for yourself.
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
One thing we have seen underscored in 2025 is that the bond market can change its mind very quickly, particularly as it relates to policy emanating from Washington, D.C. Following President Trump’s election win, the dominant theme in the U.S. Treasury (UST) arena was that his Administration’s policies would lead to higher budget deficits, increasing UST supply and, ultimately, higher rates for maturities like the 10-Year yield.
Stocks rebounded on Wednesday as core inflation in the United States came in below consensus expectations and news of a possible 30-day truce in the Russia-Ukraine war emerged. Big tech stocks also recovered after flirting with bear-market territory earlier this week.
During the onset of the COVID crisis, I made a note to myself to write an update in five years to discuss what happened to the markets since that trying period of time. This week, I received a task alert in Salesforce reminding me to write that update.
News headlines this week have been dominated by recession fears in the U.S., with the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 shedding value. Yet, amid this rising uncertainty, a positive story is emerging—the performance of European markets.
Ben Inker and John Pease look at the economics of trade and tariffs at a theoretical level and explain why broadly applied tariffs are a needlessly economically way to achieve U.S. goals.
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
In today’s rapidly evolving financial landscape, advisors are expected to be more than just portfolio managers. Clients don’t just want investment recommendations—they seek a trusted partner who understands their financial needs, offers strategic guidance and provides peace of mind during turbulent times.
It was inevitable. Certain pieces of the market roared to insane valuations last year. Investors poured money into the markets and speculated stocks would keep rising forever. But, sentiment has shifted.
March came in like a lion, much to the bears’ delight. The S&P 500® plunged from its February 19 high on the heels of stern tariff talk and phrases like “a little bit of an adjustment period” from President Trump and the economy entering a “detox period,” as Treasury Secretary Bessent said last week.
The Liberal Party of Canada has wrapped up its leadership race, with Mark Carney winning by an overwhelming margin.
Warmer weather means that many animals come out of hibernation. Unfortunately for investors, market bears have also awakened from their slumber.
There has been further indication that the U.S. will underperform during a negative market, according to DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach.
Learn why discounting can harm your reputation as an advisor and discover strategies to build trust and confidence with clients.
Navigating tax season can be even more confusing when facing the range of rules around IRA withdrawals, 529 plan distributions, and charitable deductions. Our Bill Cass details some common questions around tax filing.
The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a recession could increase, it is crucial to remember the 2022 experience.
Most of us associate 529 accounts with college savings. They’re flexible, allowing you to transfer assets to anyone, including yourself, for the express purpose of furthering the education of your beneficiary. But did you know that a 529 can be a powerful estate planning tool?
Germany is newly motivated to reconsider its fiscal restraint.
Investors who have come to us in the last three to four years are probably wondering if we’ve been here before. By here, we mean a stretch of significant underperformance relative to our benchmarks. The answer is, yes. Let’s review those prior circumstances to see if we can learn something about where we might be headed.
In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.
Three months into 2025, the U.S. IPO (initial public offering) market remains in a rut. Why? And, perhaps just as importantly, is a rebound still possible?
Stock/bond divergence allows investors to reap the benefits of portfolio diversification, giving bond exchange-traded funds credence.
Recent US stock weakness may be related to a downturn in US economic data and headline shocks related to tariffs.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies didn’t do much of anything following last week’s crypto summit at the White House.
As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.
As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
Volatility across financial markets has become a persistent theme in 2025. The recent volatility has stemmed from a range of factors, including:
For decades, the U.S. dollar’s dominance has rested on two pillars: America’s deep capital markets and its global security alliances. Today, both are under strain.
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
Economic growth, earnings performance, and rising fiscal spending coupled with "America First" policies are driving international stock markets.
Short-term deadlines will complicate long-run plans.
Parametric’s tax optimized ladders (TOL) solution may help to enhance after-tax yield by seeking to optimize the allocation between tax-exempt and taxable bonds, based on an investor’s own tax rate and the relative value between sectors.
The EV shakeout is underway. When the dust settles, only a few players will remain. Many more will be relegated to the scrapyard of failed ambitions.
Costco's earnings may have disappointed in the near-term, but the company may be in a prime position to perform during a tariff showdown.
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
Though mergers and acquisitions were expected to roar back in 2025 thanks to the new administration, uncertainty around Washington policy appears to be holding back new deals.
Trade policy clarity is a long way off.
Last week brought another wave of volatility to the markets, with investors grappling with mixed economic signals, geopolitical developments, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.
There’s a lesson for financial advisors in this story. If you demonstrate a genuine intention to engage and connect with your female clients, it will build relationships that could drive the growth of the business for years to come.
