Building a bond portfolio these days isn’t easy. Interest rates have been volatile. Credit spreads are tight. And sweeping change in US fiscal, trade, and regulatory policy is underway. We think securitized assets deserve a closer look.
At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.
2025 is beginning in much the same manner as 2024, with investors focused on whether the Chinese government is going to implement new stimulus measures.
Cash flow and income sometimes get commingled, potentially creating confusion. Cash flow and yield typically represent two different components that can be used to accomplish different objectives.
We are observing a significant shift in global supply chains away from China, presenting a substantial investment opportunity. What are the reasons behind this shift?
Recent developments may just offer advisors and investors fresh pathways with which to attain higher yield in 2025.
A closer look at the broader landscape reveals why the United States remains positioned to pursue a strategy of tariffs.
The article introduces CC CAPE, a modified version of Shiller CAPE, which corrects index biases for improved forecasting. While both measure market valuations for long-term return forecasting, the CAPE Spread helps gauge sentiment for medium-term predictions.
Perhaps US efforts to cut off China’s access to advanced semiconductors will be more successful than analogous restrictions on tech exports to France in the 1960s. But we now have at least one data point – DeepSeek – that suggests otherwise.
Michael Contopoulos breaks down why CLOs offer attractive relative value, why short-duration positioning may help manage interest rate uncertainty, and the importance of an active approach for this year in particular.
The Federal Reserve’s record of forecasting has frequently led it to respond too late to changes in economic and financial conditions. In the most recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve changed its statement to support a pause in the current interest rate-cutting cycle.
For 2025 tax planning, our Bill Cass shares income tax planning strategies that can help manage current tax bills and prepare for future changes. Here are the highlights.
Managers are cognizant of potential risks to portfolios, identifying dominant Chinese component manufacturers, North American automotive supply chains, and smaller cap industrial cyclicals as market segments worth monitoring.
Could the U.S. dollar lose its place as the world's reserve currency? Despite a long-term trend toward currency diversification, we don't see the dollar losing dominance anytime soon.
The employment report was uniformly strong except for one component: the average hours worked per week fell to the lowest level since the pandemic, which may be weather related.
We explore why extreme market concentration is unsustainable, how competition and innovation drive broader market performance, and why diversification is key as volatility rises. Don’t let market extremes catch you off guard.
As the sequel unfolds, particular industry sectors in affected countries are likely to be more impacted. Global Head of Credit Research Mike Talaga, Head of EMEA Credit Research James Maxwell, and Client Portfolio Manager Celia Soares discuss the implications for credit investors.
The equity markets were lower after facing a trifecta of headwinds from China, the Fed, and the White House. Stocks are running a bit serpentine right now, with tech under extreme pressure in response to headlines highlighting the low-cost language model developed by Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek.
Tariff policies have been announced and then subsequently rescinded or delayed–but not yet resolved. They may still hold the potential for market volatility.
While the expectation is Congress will raise the debt ceiling, the process is likely to be volatile.
Is an M&A boom brewing?
Faced with escalating labor expenses—from wages to benefits—businesses are rethinking traditional workforce expansion. Instead, they are investing in AI technologies that promise scalability, efficiency and unparalleled productivity.
Municipal bonds were a hot topic at last week’s VettaFi Fixed Income Symposium — more than I expected them to be.
The past few weeks have been challenging for the Magnificent Seven stocks and the broader AI equity complex.
Investors are increasingly moving into active ETFs from mutual funds, as the ETF structure may offer numerous benefits over mutual funds.
Over the weekend, President Trump announced tariffs of 25% on both Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China.
The federal government gets a great deal of grief when it issues economic reports and it’s not hard to see why.
We provide an update on the 4Q24 earnings season and explain why our positive outlook on tech- related companies remains unchanged.
Tariff threats offer a glimpse of what is in store.
Exploring the delicate balance between protectionism and global cooperation
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Director & Chief Investment Strategist for North America Paul Eitelman discussed the main themes from U.S. 4Q 2024 earnings season, and provided a U.S. trade policy update & recent announcements from global central banks.
Integrating private assets may enhance target-date glide paths, but know your exposures.
Last week’s economic data reflected resilience and uncertainty. Key indicators pointed to ongoing expansion.
Consider gaining AI market exposure through data center ABS (asset-backed securities) and CMBS (commercial mortgage-backed securities).
Alex Mackey of MFS delved into the active bond strategies underpinning MFSB and MFSM in the recent Q1 2025 Fixed Income Symposium.
Some allocators may focus their search efforts on corporate credit segments or simply a portfolio that can opportunistically trade across fixed income sectors.
Today we’ll talk about Trump, tariffs, cycles, and DOGE. Jumping right in…
Tech results last week were more anticipated than usual due to the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek in the prior week.
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
In today’s era of automation, some situations demand a more active approach. Municipal bond investing is one.
Tariffs seem to have become a staple of Americans’ dictionaries lately as the new administration uses this policy instrument to achieve objectives that are not directly tied to the reasons tariffs have been used in the past.
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on November 26, 2024, equity markets are up slightly.
Broadcom looks to build off last year's strength, which should give bullish traders another year of potential gains.
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
There weren’t too many market observers who penciled in higher tariffs on Canada than on China, but that’s where things stood, at least for a few hours, before Trump struck a deal with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau yesterday.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
Impact investors can help devastated communities recover and build resilience.
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
