Some forms of technical analysis are often too much “inside baseball” for many investors. However, the concept of moving averages is one of the most important technical indicators and an easier one to grasp.
Last week, on March 19th, the S&P 500 closed below its 200-DMA for the first time since May 2025. The first instinct is to panic as media headlines talk about bear markets and financial crisis events. However, as we will explore today, the data says it depends entirely on the type of break: sustained or brief.
Proposals to engineer secondary trading in private assets, often championed by vocal critics of public market liquidity, have gained renewed momentum. For some, enhanced tradability is viewed as a remedy to growing unease over the absence of transparent, real‑time valuation signals in private portfolios.
Many investors think about getting out of the stock market when it gets bumpy. But history shows that staying invested over the long term has resulted in positive gains.
The past three weeks have been unsettling, and not just for markets, but for anyone paying attention to what is happening in the world.
Gold was the highest-returning major asset class of 2025, advancing approximately 64% on the year. Its appreciation was supported by multiple reinforcing factors: elevated geopolitical uncertainty driving safe-haven demand, U.S. dollar weakness, sustained central bank accumulation, and strong inflows into gold-backed ETFs.
The ongoing Middle East war has once again underscored oil’s strategic importance. Vital resources warrant buffers against disruptions in the form of a strategic reserve.
Global markets stood on edge as the conflict in Iran upended energy markets and muddied the outlook for the global economy. Interest rate markets repriced as market participants processed the notion that hostilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could last longer than expected.
The Cboe Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX), which measures implied volatility in oil ETF options, estimates the expected volatility of crude oil prices over the next 30 days. The higher the reading, the more oil prices are expected to bounce around.
History made: Dimensional launches first active ETF share class. Access 40 years of micro-cap expertise in a tax-efficient ETF wrapper.
Muni bonds have been a strong performer so far in 2026, benefitting from an important transition to the ETF wrapper from mutual funds.
“Smoke on the Water, Fire in the Sky,” the iconic Deep Purple refrain, endures because it captures a familiar dynamic: threats appear on the horizon before the heat arrives.
As expected, there was no rate cut at today’s meeting, but changes to economic projections and comments at the press conference gave some light into how the Fed is processing political and geopolitical events, and how those events are shaping the Fed’s outlook.
A properly functioning Strait of Hormuz holds the keys to clarity around the growth, inflation, and market shock that has stemmed from the war in the Middle East.
The Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady in March at 3.5%–3.75%, a widely expected outcome as policymakers navigated an unusually complex macro backdrop.
Silver had a phenomenal 2025, more than doubling from around $30/oz to above $70 by late December, and the rally continued into the new year.
Private credit is a key pillar of debt capital formation alongside public credit markets and bank balance sheets. But an important part of its value proposition—to borrowers and end investors—is its illiquidity relative to public markets. That distinction is by design, and we think it should stay that way.
The Fed simultaneously needs to hold interest rates higher (and arguably raise them) to deal with increasing inflation pressure while also needing to cut interest rates due to the massive Debt Black Hole warping the economy.
Economic dislocations create opportunities. While many market watchers are seriously concerned about the microshifts in markets and stocks, others may see the opportunities that emerge when oil prices spike.
Engaging with client family members may seem tricky, but it can start with simple questions to the client first. In fact, asking your client about the personalities and desires of their loved ones may be a way of deepening your understanding of your client’s financial needs.
The federal funds rate will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. The 'dot plot' still projects a single rate cut this year, and the Fed sees slightly stronger economic growth and inflation.
For ultra-high-net-worth families, the landscape of wealth stewardship is evolving. As the largest intergenerational transfer of capital in history unfolds, women are increasingly shaping the future of family wealth—not only as inheritors and beneficiaries, but also as creators of wealth, entrepreneurs, investors, and leaders guiding multigenerational strategy.
The FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% for a second straight meeting as policymakers weigh slowing growth, persistent inflation, with core PCE at 3.1%, and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East.
The wealth transfer didn’t create a new problem; it exposed one advisors have postponed for decades.
China’s underappreciated equity market and energy resilience amid current geopolitical tensions warrants consideration, according to Franklin Templeton ETFs’ Dina Ting. In this article, she discusses the different factors that underpin her views.
Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon discusses how US small caps remain market leaders even as volatility and uncertainty are on the rise.
Despite gold’s sideways performance in recent weeks, UBS still expects gold to gain 20 percent from its current price this year.
Outsourced chief investment officer (OCIO) relationships have evolved dramatically. What once teed up primarily as a solution for smaller institutions seeking a roadmap to improving their governance, strategy and execution is now being adopted by much larger asset owners.
Historically, major geopolitical or economic crises, such as the war against Iran, have prompted investors to sell riskier assets and buy “safe-haven” investments whose values were expected to remain stable or even rise amid the disruptions.
Rob Arnott, founder & chairman of Research Affiliates, took part in a session at Exchange 2026 to discuss this, his views on growth opportunities, and more. Roxanna Islam, CFA, CAIA, head of sector & industry research at VettaFi, moderated the session.
The recent 30% surge in crude oil prices has led many observers—drawing on memories of past energy crises—to immediately warn of recession. That may ultimately prove correct, but we’re cautious about narrative-driven, back-of-the-envelope predictions.
In this commentary, I’m not going to try to predict any outcomes or long-term effects but rather want to cover how markets have reacted so far and highlight some opportunities that have been created.
Investigation of Federal Reserve chair hits an obstacle, while the Department of Homeland Security remains shut down amid funding standoff.
As has been the case from day one when the first airstrikes began, the key factor in assessing economic and market impact is the duration of the effective Strait of Hormuz closure and resulting effects on prices of energy and other commodities. Prediction markets are split on whether the conflict ends by the end of May.
In this month’s Allocation Views, healthy earnings growth is disguising a bifurcation that has resulted in particularly challenging earnings expectations for large-cap growth stocks in 2026.
If you have been thinking about a move, the chaos outside your window is not a reason to stop. It might be the best reason to start.
Five techniques can help human experts tame hallucinations and make models more effective.
The Qualified Opportunity Zone (QOZ) program is entering a pivotal transition period, with some legacy incentives expiring this year and a redesigned framework set to take effect next year.
Comparing business-cycle-related primary trends of the falling 2-year Treasury yield shows that this is the slowest business cycle since WWII. I argue the slowness of this cycle is evidence of the 6+% average pro-cyclical fiscal deficit over the last three and a half years.
For decades, the 60/40 portfolio was the gold standard for balanced investing. However, as correlations between stocks and bonds fluctuate and traditional safe havens face new pressures, advisors are looking toward alternatives to increase portfolio efficiency.
With 2026 now in full swing, it’s time to announce the global podium for robotics — brought to you by the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index (ROBO).
The word 'equilibrium' is an invitation to recognize that nothing exists by itself, alone. Subject and object are two sides of the same coin – their interaction is a single phenomenon. That perspective can offer a great deal of insight about economics, financial markets, speculative bubbles, passive investing, and nearly everything in existence.
Iran-related geopolitical risk has boosted stock volatility, especially in sectors like Energy. Uncertainty remains high and there are a range of scenarios for how this conflict could be resolved and how it might affect economic conditions and markets.
This past weekend, Adam Taggart and I discussed what happens to Treasury bond yields when the United States enters a military conflict. The conventional wisdom is reflexive and tidy.
When geopolitical tensions flare up, the natural assumption is that gold should immediately surge. War breaks out, markets panic… and the metal rallies as investors rush to safety.
Skyrocketing oil prices were accompanied by mixed inflation readings last week. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate held steady in February at 2.4 percent annually, while core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, rose a modest 0.22 percent for the month.
The market ended last week with a more cautious tone as rising oil and the widening Middle East conflict bring a fresh layer of uncertainty. I could see the markets experiencing a 10% correction from the recent highs. We are not anticipating a major decline for the S&P 500, but the mood has clearly changed.
The whole world will feel the consequences of this conflict.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year asset class forecast as of February 28, 2026.
Despite less reliance on oil, higher oil prices will add pressure to inflation. If energy costs stay elevated, inflation could rise again, potentially delaying interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Geopolitical uncertainty remains a risk. Conflicts in the Middle East could disrupt supply chains and increase price volatility in key commodities like oil.
