Change is the sum of fundamental trends, the gradual elimination of accumulated extremes, and the random arrival of new shocks.
Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index.
The period from the 1960s to the 1990s defined by record-setting inflation and big swings in GDP bears a striking resemblance to the current environment.
Last week showcased the complexities driving markets and the economy, with inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, and political developments at the forefront. While inflation metrics in the CPI came in as expected, the PPI surprised on the higher side, pushing up estimates for the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge.
From stock picking to benchmark selection, the construction of an active thematic equity portfolio will play a crucial role in its ability to deliver on a theme’s return potential.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman seems to be happy with the market’s new wisdom regarding the path of interest rates going forward.
AI chip-leader Nvidia reports Wednesday after recent guidance from cloud providers suggests the demand powering its shares could continue. Its own guidance, however, could be key.
The Q3 earnings season is coming to a close in its usual fashion, with a word from retailers. With 93% of S&P 500 companies reporting at this point, YoY S&P 500 EPS growth has settled around 5.4%, while revenue growth increased 5.5% for the quarter.
In our lifetimes, the best comparison for Trump’s election win is Ronald Reagan’s in 1980. That election, like this one, pitted big spenders and champions of government against tax cutters and critics of government.
Market prognosticators and the financial media will often point to a particular piece of anecdotal evidence as bullish or bearish. Quite often, the evidence is intuitively appealing as a contrarian indicator.
Join the experts at Grandeur Peak Global Advisors for an educational webcast exploring how to approach the small cap space.
Our model, How America Spends, has been tracking the purchasing behavior of 135 million U.S. households since 2014. This model is not a black box – it is a data file representing the spending of 135 million households on goods and services since 2014.
The MACD is one of my favored technical indicators to help forecast prices and manage risk. Accordingly, let's learn more about the MACD to see how it detects trends and potential trend changes, and assesses momentum.
In an era where lifespans are longer than ever, the traditional concept of retirement is evolving. You might be surprised by the unexpected words being used to describe life after career and the importance being placed on going beyond the word "retirement."
Don't miss this opportunity to reimagine your clients’ retirement plans. Join leading experts from MassMutual as they explore valuable research from the MIT AgeLab and how to help your clients define their retirement vision.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth talks about the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) with Money Life host Chuck Jaffe. The pair discussed use cases for the ETF as well as its outlook.
The S&P 500 index has had a spectacular run from its October 2022 trough to its present all-time peak, which has some (me included) wondering when the bull market will end. I approach this question in three steps.
Germany’s Carl Benz might have invented the automobile, but it’s the United States that got us to drive them.
The crypto party seems to be getting restarted. Bitcoin is surging and big players are celebrating amid expectations that President-elect Donald Trump will make the US, as he put it, “the crypto capital of the world.”
Last week’s selloff, which comes on the heels of what has been a generally successful earnings season for Corporate America, has investors bracing for one final test: a reading on the state of the consumer from a series of retail bellwethers who report in the coming days.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, well known for his bearish views on US equities in recent years, has an outright bullish outlook for 2025.
If Wall Street learned one thing during Donald Trump’s first term as president, it’s that the stock market is a way he keeps score. At various points he took credit for equities rallies, urged Americans to buy the dip, and even considered firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who he blamed for a selloff.
Two weeks ago, I opened this letter by noting the election uncertainty, once over, would give way to a different uncertainty about what comes next. That’s where we are now.
With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office in January, the U.S. military and cybersecurity sectors could experience sweeping changes, creating opportunities for investors who recognize the long-term growth potential in defense and technology.
In this video, Part 1 of 2, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation will be looking for value in the Consumer Discretionary Sector, 15 consumer discretionary stocks that look reasonably valued.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, inflation and interest rates.
Declining inflation has been a theme for the economy since mid-2022, but we still believe the road may have some curves.
The last three months have seen bursts of excitement that the Chinese government was about to open the floodgates of stimulus, followed by disappointment as follow-on announcements have lacked detail on the actual scale of measures.
The new Trump Administration hasn’t wasted any time since last week’s election win, with new information around economic policy and staffing appointments making news on a daily basis. In our opinion, the recent announcement of a new Department of Government Efficiency or “DOGE” headed by Elon Musk (who obviously came up with this name and acronym) and Vivek Ramaswamy, has been the most important so far.
Municipal bonds broke their winning streak in October, posting negative total returns alongside broader fixed income assets.
Elon Musk is ramping up his feud with Sam Altman, alleging in a court filing that OpenAI is trying to corner the market for generative artificial intelligence and sacrificing safety in a race to get ahead.
Traders see an interest-rate cut next month as a coin toss as resilient economic data empowers Federal Reserve officials to take a potentially more-cautious approach to easing.
The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 returned a staggering 104.6% from January 2023 through June 2024—more than double the broader index return
Gold traded near a two-month low, on course for its worst week since June 2021 as traders wind back expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month.
The highest Treasury yields in months — reached Friday after a batch of strong economic data cast additional doubt on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month — proved appealing to bond investors.
Join the experts at Goldman Sachs Asset Management for a thorough discussion of the key topics, themes, and investment ideas that can help position portfolios for success in 2025.
The economy played a critical role in the 2024 presidential race, creating the conditions not only for Donald Trump to trounce Kamala Harris, but also for a counter-elite to usher in a new power structure. Will the Democrats and “establishment” experts get the message?
This isn’t the same China that greeted Donald Trump after his first win in 2016. The economy, once widely believed on a course to knock the US off its perch as the preeminent commercial power, has since revealed some acute vulnerabilities that don’t seem to be going away. And the president-elect seems to be gearing up for a trade war he no longer needs to fight.
Big Tech stocks have had a relatively muted reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory, as investors parse how his second term might play out. So far, many are reserving judgment.
Larry Fink turned to big deals to get BlackRock Inc. out in front of a decade of money gushing into index funds. Now he’s doing the same to make sure his firm isn’t left behind in the stampede into private assets.
Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office led investment firms for the world’s rich in boosting allocations to US bank shares last quarter, putting them in line to profit from a rally in financial stocks.
This year was already a landmark one for exchange-traded funds, but as of Friday the ETF universe can add another superlative: biggest annual inflows on record.
Healthcare companies often grab headlines for their exciting drug innovations. But we think the focus should be on business fundamentals.
A year-round focus on taxes can unlock value for investors in higher brackets—and it can help advisors prove their own value.
U.S. rate cuts of up to 200bps are anticipated by the end of 2025 but with significant further downside if recession risks materialize.
Before the year 2024 comes to a close, it's time to optimize your tax strategy. Our Bill Cass shares some tips including timing deductions and harvesting losses.
One of the core principles of a long-term dividend portfolio is to invest in companies that are integral to society and will be for many years to come. Transportation falls into that category.
Much of modern finance falls into one of two camps, neoclassical finance and behavioral finance. The former posits efficient markets, the latter posits the opposite.
Following a tense presidential election, equity markets roared to record highs – the S&P 500 put on its best weekly showing in over a year.
As a major corn and soybean consumer, China is keeping prices in limbo. A potential trade war could add additional intrigue.
The macroeconomic overview presents ambiguity. In the face of U.S. elections, falling rates, and a host of trends that could shape the market, investors need to find a smart approach.
